Related papers: The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: A Microstructural…
We study the effect of investor inertia on stock price fluctuations with a market microstructure model comprising many small investors who are inactive most of the time. It turns out that semi-Markov processes are tailor made for modelling…
We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…
We introduce matrix H theory, a framework for analyzing collective behavior arising from multivariate stochastic processes with hierarchical structure. The theory models the joint distribution of the multiple variables (the measured signal)…
Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…
This paper investigates short-term behaviors of implied volatility of derivatives written on indexes in equity markets when the index processes are constructed by using a ranking procedure. Even in simple market settings where stock prices…
We propose a simple statistical-physics-inspired model for the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on supply and demand in markets. The model consists of agents that trade in two types of goods of which the total number is separately…
This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…
We implement a market microstructure model including informed, uninformed and heuristic-driven investors, which latter behave in line with loss-aversion and mental accounting. We show that the probability of informed trading (PIN) varies…
In this paper we present an interacting-agent model of stock markets. We describe a stock market through an Ising-like model in order to formulate the tendency of traders getting to be influenced by the other traders' investment attitudes…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
We give a stochastic microscopic modelling of stock markets driven by continuous double auction. If we take into account the mimetic behavior of traders, when they place limit order, our virtual markets shows the power-law tail of the…
Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely…
We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription.…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical…
This paper deals with a stochastic order-driven market model with waiting costs, for order books with heterogenous traders. Offer and demand of liquidity drives price formation and traders anticipate future evolutions of the order book. The…
We propose coalescent mechanism of economic grow because of redistribution of external resources. It leads to Zipf distribution of firms over their sizes, turning to stretched exponent because of size-dependent effects, and predicts…
Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where, for some purposes, constraints imposed by market institutions dominate intelligent agent behavior. We use data…
We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated…