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In multicenter randomized trials, when effect modifiers have a different distribution across centers, comparisons between treatment groups that average over centers may not apply to any of the populations underlying the individual centers.…

Effect modification means the size of a treatment effect varies with an observed covariate. Generally speaking, a larger treatment effect with more stable error terms is less sensitive to bias. Thus, we might be able to conclude that a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yijun Fan , Dylan S. Small

Regression discontinuity designs are frequently used to estimate the causal effect of election outcomes and policy interventions. In these contexts, treatment effects are typically estimated with covariates included to improve efficiency.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-06 L. Jason Anastasopoulos

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

Demand response aims to stimulate electricity consumers to modify their loads at critical time periods. In this paper, we consider signals in demand response programs as a binary treatment to the customers and estimate the average treatment…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Pan Li , Baosen Zhang

Investigators are often interested in how a treatment affects an outcome for units responding to treatment in a certain way. We may wish to know the effect among units that, for example, meaningfully implemented an intervention, passed an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Chad Hazlett , Nina McMurry , Tanvi Shinkre

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

This paper develops a unified framework for estimating continuous outcomes under multiple treatment levels in observational studies. We integrate the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS), Covariate Balancing Propensity Score (CBPS), and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Byeonghee Lee , Joonsung Kang

Eliminating the effect of confounding in observational studies typically involves fitting a model for an outcome adjusted for covariates. When, as often, these covariates are high-dimensional, this necessitates the use of sparse estimators…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-26 Oliver Dukes , Stijn Vansteelandt

Omitted variable bias can affect treatment effect estimates obtained from observational data due to the lack of random assignment to treatment groups. Sensitivity analyses adjust these estimates to quantify the impact of potential omitted…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-10 Carrie A. Hosman , Ben B. Hansen , Paul W. Holland

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-23 Susan Athey , Raj Chetty , Guido Imbens , Hyunseung Kang

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

Stepped wedge cluster randomized controlled trials are typically analyzed using models that assume the full effect of the treatment is achieved instantaneously. We provide an analytical framework for scenarios in which the treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Avi Kenny , Emily Voldal , Fan Xia , Patrick J. Heagerty , James P. Hughes

We study a group lasso estimator for the multivariate linear regression model that accounts for correlated error terms. A block coordinate descent algorithm is used to compute this estimator. We perform a simulation study with categorical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-17 Ines Wilms , Christophe Croux

Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covariates and seek to use this information to personalize…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Sheyu Li , Valentyn Litvin , Charles F. Manski

Biomarker measurements can be relatively easy and quick to obtain and they are useful to investigate whether a compound works as intended on a mechanistic, pharmacological level. In some situations, it is realistic to assume that patients,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-26 Björn Bornkamp , Georgina Bermann