Related papers: Inference in heavy-tailed non-stationary multivari…
Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…
This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…
This paper considers estimation and inference about tail features when the observations beyond some threshold are censored. We first show that ignoring such tail censoring could lead to substantial bias and size distortion, even if the…
We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…
A general rate estimation method is proposed that is based on studying the in-sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics. The proposed rate estimators are based on simple least squares arguments, and are shown…
Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…
We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…
We study high-probability convergence guarantees of learning on streaming data in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. In the proposed scenario, the model is updated in an online fashion, as new information is observed, without storing any…
Stable subordinators, and more general subordinators possessing power law probability tails, have been widely used in the context of subdiffusions, where particles get trapped or immobile in a number of time periods, called constant…
We develop a general estimation and inference procedure for the common parameters in linear panel data regression models with nonparametric two-way specification of unobserved heterogeneity. The procedure takes as input any first-step…
Regular variation is often used as the starting point for modeling multivariate heavy-tailed data. A random vector is regularly varying if and only if its radial part $R$ is regularly varying and is asymptotically independent of the angular…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
In recent years, various notions of capacity and complexity have been proposed for characterizing the generalization properties of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in deep learning. Some of the popular notions that correlate well with the…
We study the $k$-largest eigenvalues of heavy-tailed sample covariance matrices of the form $\bX\bX^\T$ in an asymptotic framework, where the dimension of the data and the sample size tend to infinity. To this end, we assume that the rows…
We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…
This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…
This paper describes limiting behaviour of tail empirical process associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between a Hurst parameter and a tail…
Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…