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The accurate prediction of patient prognosis is a critical challenge in clinical practice. With the availability of various patient information, physicians can optimize medical care by closely monitoring disease progression and therapy…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-28 He Weiyi

Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-10 Tim Huisman , Jacobus G. M. van der Linden , Emir Demirović

Survival analysis is a challenging variation of regression modeling because of the presence of censoring, where the outcome measurement is only partially known, due to, for example, loss to follow up. Such problems come up frequently in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Chirag Nagpal , Steve Yadlowsky , Negar Rostamzadeh , Katherine Heller

Survival analysis deals with modeling the time until an event occurs, and accurate probability estimates are crucial for decision-making, particularly in the competing-risks setting where multiple events are possible. While recent work has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Julie Alberge , Tristan Haugomat , Gaël Varoquaux , Judith Abécassis

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

This paper presents and derives the interrelations between survival analysis and master equation. Survival analysis deals with modeling the transitions between succeeding states of a system in terms of hazard rates. Questions related with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing

Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Ling Huang , Yucheng Xing , Swapnil Mishra , Thierry Denoeux , Mengling Feng

Meta-analyses of survival studies aim to reveal the variation of an effect measure of interest over different studies and present a meaningful summary. They must address between study heterogeneity in several dimensions and eliminate…

Survival analysis, or time-to-event analysis, is an important and widespread problem in healthcare research. Medical research has traditionally relied on Cox models for survival analysis, due to their simplicity and interpretability. Cox…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Mike Van Ness , Tomas Bosschieter , Natasha Din , Andrew Ambrosy , Alexander Sandhu , Madeleine Udell

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Oleksandr Shchur , Marin Biloš , Stephan Günnemann

Analyzing and interpreting time-dependent stochastic data requires accurate and robust density estimation. In this paper we extend the concept of normalizing flows to so-called temporal Normalizing Flows (tNFs) to estimate time dependent…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-12-20 Gert-Jan Both , Remy Kusters

Normalizing flows provide an elegant approach to generative modeling that allows for efficient sampling and exact density evaluation of unknown data distributions. However, current techniques have significant limitations in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sahil Sidheekh , Chris B. Dock , Tushar Jain , Radu Balan , Maneesh K. Singh

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-25 Jimmy Hickey , Ricardo Henao , Daniel Wojdyla , Michael Pencina , Matthew M. Engelhard

Designing predictive models for subjective problems in natural language processing (NLP) remains challenging. This is mainly due to its non-deterministic nature and different perceptions of the content by different humans. It may be solved…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Piotr Miłkowski , Konrad Karanowski , Patryk Wielopolski , Jan Kocoń , Przemysław Kazienko , Maciej Zięba

Due to the non-stationarity of time series, the distribution shift problem largely hinders the performance of time series forecasting. Existing solutions either rely on using certain statistics to specify the shift, or developing specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Wei Fan , Shun Zheng , Pengyang Wang , Rui Xie , Kun Yi , Qi Zhang , Jiang Bian , Yanjie Fu

Synthetically generated data can improve privacy, fairness, and data accessibility; however, it can be challenging in specialized scenarios such as survival analysis. One key challenge in this setting is censoring, i.e., the timing of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-07 Mohd Ashhad , Ricardo Henao

This paper introduces temporal-conditioned normalizing flows (tcNF), a novel framework that addresses anomaly detection in time series data with accurate modeling of temporal dependencies and uncertainty. By conditioning normalizing flows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 David Baumgartner , Helge Langseth , Kenth Engø-Monsen , Heri Ramampiaro

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi , Randolf Scholz , Stefan Born , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes is a challenging task in many domains, particularly in medicine where treatment protocols adapt over time. While recent advances in representation learning have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Ayoub Abraich

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Ali Hossein Gharari Foomani , Michael Cooper , Russell Greiner , Rahul G. Krishnan