Related papers: Estimating high-dimensional Markov-switching VARs
High-dimensional Bayesian variable selection problems are often solved using computationally expensive Markov Chain Montle Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Recently, a Bayesian variable selection technique was developed for continuous data using…
We propose a general adaptive LASSO method for a quantile regression model. Our method is very interesting when we know nothing about the first two moments of the model error. We first prove that the obtained estimators satisfy the oracle…
Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…
Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood…
In this paper, we propose two new algorithms for maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) of high dimensional sparse covariance matrices. Unlike most of the state of-the-art methods, which either use regularization techniques or penalize the…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…
Maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression with mixed effects is known to often result in estimates on the boundary of the parameter space. Such estimates, which include infinite values for fixed effects and singular or infinite…
The paper proposes a new covariance estimator for large covariance matrices when the variables have a natural ordering. Using the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse, we impose a banded structure on the Cholesky factor, and select the…
This report presents an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation of the maximum-likelihood parameter values of constrained multivariate autoregressive Gaussian state-space (MARSS) models. The MARSS model can be written:…
For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…
Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
To deal with very large datasets a mini-batch version of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for general latent variable models is proposed. For exponential models the algorithm is shown…
Estimation in the deformable template model is a big challenge in image analysis. The issue is to estimate an atlas of a population. This atlas contains a template and the corresponding geometrical variability of the observed shapes. The…
We consider the problem of simultaneous variable selection and estimation in partially linear models with a divergent number of covariates in the linear part, under the assumption that the vector of regression coefficients is sparse. We…
This paper proposes maximum (quasi)likelihood estimation for high dimensional factor models with regime switching in the loadings. The model parameters are estimated jointly by the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm, which in the…
We propose a new 2-stage procedure that relies on the elastic net penalty to estimate a network based on partial correlations when data are heavy-tailed. The new estimator allows to consider the lasso penalty as a special case. Using Monte…