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Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Clara Bicalho , Adam Bouyamourn , Thad Dunning

In observational studies, accurately characterizing variance is critical for sample size determination, yet unaccounted-for variability from propensity score estimation and the resulting weights limit the accuracy of standard variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Taekwon Hong , Daeyoung Lim , Woojung Bae , Yong Ma

Propensity score (PS) matching to estimate causal effects of exposure is biased when unmeasured spatial confounding exists. Some exposures are continuous yet dependent on a binary variable (e.g., level of a contaminant (continuous) within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Honghyok Kim , Michelle Bell

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Generalizing causal estimates in randomized experiments to a broader target population is essential for guiding decisions by policymakers and practitioners in the social and biomedical sciences. While recent papers developed various…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-03 Melody Huang , Naoki Egami , Erin Hartman , Luke Miratrix

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

Violations of the positivity assumption can render conventional causal estimands unidentifiable, including the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yi Liu , Yuan Wang , Ying Gao , Tonia Poteat , Roland A. Matsouaka

Balancing influential covariates is crucial for valid treatment comparisons in clinical studies. While covariate-adaptive randomization is commonly used to achieve balance, its performance can be inadequate when the number of baseline…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ziqing Guo , Yang Liu , Lucy Xia

Gaussian process (GP) covariance function is proposed as a matching tool in GPMatch within a full Bayesian framework under relatively weaker causal assumptions. The matching is accomplished by utilizing GP prior covariance function to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-18 Bin Huang , Chen Chen , Jinzhong Liu

In observational studies of treatment effects, matched samples are created so treated and control groups are similar in terms of observable covariates. Traditionally such matched samples consist of matched pairs. If a pair match fails to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-22 Luke Keele , Sam Pimentel , Frank Yoon

A common goal in observational research is to estimate marginal causal effects in the presence of confounding variables. One solution to this problem is to use the covariate distribution to weight the outcomes such that the data appear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-18 Kevin P. Josey , Elizabeth Juarez-Colunga , Fan Yang , Debashis Ghosh

The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. The primary appeal of this estimator is its theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-11 Kaoru Babasaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

In observational studies, the recorded treatment assignment is not purely random, but it is influenced by external factors such as patient characteristics, reimbursement policies, and existing guidelines. Therefore, the treatment effect can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Sara Poletto , Enrico Longato , Erica Tavazzi , Martina Vettoretti

Personalized optimal decision making, finding the optimal decision rule (ODR) based on individual characteristics, has attracted increasing attention recently in many fields, such as education, economics, and medicine. Current ODR methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-22 Hengrui Cai , Rui Song , Wenbin Lu

Chance imbalance in baseline characteristics is common in randomized clinical trials. Regression adjustment such as the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is often used to account for imbalance and increase precision of the treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-14 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Rui Wang , Fan Li

In this paper, we focus on estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a target population when individual-level data from a source population and summary-level data (e.g., first or second moments of certain covariates) from the target…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Rui Chen , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Causal or unconfounded descriptive comparisons between multiple groups are common in observational studies. Motivated from a racial disparity study in health services research, we propose a unified propensity score weighting framework, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Fan Li , Fan Li

It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

We propose a method to reduce variance in treatment effect estimates in the setting of high-dimensional data. In particular, we introduce an approach for learning a metric to be used in matching treatment and control groups. The metric…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-15 Jonathan Bates , Alexander Cloninger