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This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-26 Luisanna Cocco , Giulio Concas , Michele Marchesi

The Bitcoin payment system involves two agent types: Users that transact with the currency and pay fees and miners in charge of authorizing transactions and securing the system in return for these fees. Two of Bitcoin's challenges are (i)…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Ron Lavi , Or Sattath , Aviv Zohar

Bitcoin is currently subject to a significant pay-for-speed trade-off. This is caused by lengthy and highly variable transaction confirmation times, especially during times of congestion. Users can reduce their transaction confirmation…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-28 Rowel Gündlach , Ivo V. Stoepker , Stella Kapodistria , Jacques A. C. Resing

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Fan Fang , Waichung Chung , Carmine Ventre , Michail Basios , Leslie Kanthan , Lingbo Li , Fan Wu

The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-04 Samuel Asante Gyamerah

Currently, there is no consensus on the real properties of Bitcoin. The discussion comprises its use as a speculative or safe haven assets, while other authors argue that the augmented attractiveness could end accomplishing money's…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-06 Obryan Poyser

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Olivier Scaillet , Adrien Treccani , Christopher Trevisan

Cryptocurrencies fluctuate in markets with high price volatility, posing significant challenges for investors. To aid in informed decision-making, systems predicting cryptocurrency market movements have been developed, typically focusing on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Amit Kumar , Taoran Ji

The cryptocurrency options market is notable for its high volatility and lower liquidity compared to traditional markets. These characteristics introduce significant challenges to traditional option pricing methodologies. Addressing these…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-18 Julia Kończal

The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent $H>0.5$, is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with $10^4$ geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-04 Mariusz Tarnopolski

The year 2024 witnessed a major development in the cryptocurrency industry with the long-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This innovation provides investors with a new, regulated path to gain exposure to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-04 Di Wu

Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-11 Yulin Liu , Luyao Zhang

In modern times, the cryptocurrency market is one of the world's most rapidly rising financial markets. The cryptocurrency market is regarded to be more volatile and illiquid than traditional markets such as equities, foreign exchange, and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-03 Anika Tahsin Meem

The cryptocurrency ecosystem has been the centre of discussion on many social media platforms, following its noted volatility and varied opinions. Twitter is rapidly being utilised as a news source and a medium for bitcoin discussion. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-17 Haritha GB , Sahana N. B

A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-15 Cuneyt Akcora , Matthew Dixon , Yulia Gel , Murat Kantarcioglu

Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-25 Xiao Li , Weili Wu

Forecasting speculative stock prices is essential for effective investment risk management that drives the need for the development of innovative algorithms. However, the speculative nature, volatility, and complex sequential dependencies…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-23 Riaz Ud Din , Salman Ahmed , Saddam Hussain Khan

Investors commonly exhibit the disposition effect - the irrational tendency to sell their winning investments and hold onto their losing ones. While this phenomenon has been observed in many traditional markets, it remains unclear whether…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-25 Jürgen E. Schatzmann , Bernhard Haslhofer

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Rahul Arulkumaran , Suyash Kumar , Shikha Tomar , Manideep Gongalla , Harshitha

This paper presents a new model for options pricing. The Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model plays an important role in financial options pricing. However, the BSM model assumes that the risk-free interest rate, volatility, and equity premium…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-29 Nicole Hao , Echo Li , Diep Luong-Le