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A comprehensive uncertainty estimation is vital for the precision program of the LHC. While experimental uncertainties are often described by stochastic processes and well-defined nuisance parameters, theoretical uncertainties lack such a…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-05-08 Aishik Ghosh , Benjamin Nachman , Tilman Plehn , Lily Shire , Tim M. P. Tait , Daniel Whiteson

Designing controllers for systems affected by model uncertainty can prove to be a challenge, especially when seeking the optimal compromise between the conflicting goals of identification and control. This trade-off is explicitly taken into…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-30 Elena Arcari , Lukas Hewing , Max Schlichting , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-10 E. Bradford , L. Imsland

With the increasing penetration of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) and their impact on power system stability and operation, the concept of stability-constrained optimization has drawn significant attention from researchers. In order to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-23 Zhongda Chu , Fei Teng

Nonlinear dynamical systems, ranging from insect populations to lasers and chemical reactions, might exhibit sensitivity to small perturbations in their control parameters, resulting in uncertainties on the predictability of tunning…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-03-10 E. S. Medeiros , I. L. Caldas , M. S. Baptista

The cavitation behaviour of a four-blade rocket engine turbopump inducer is simulated. A 2D numerical model of unsteady cavitation was applied to a blade cascade drawn fromthe inducer geometry. The physical model is based on a homogeneous…

This paper presents a novel approach for propagating uncertainties in dynamical systems building on high-order Taylor expansions of the flow and moment-generating functions (MGFs). Unlike prior methods that focus on Gaussian distributions,…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Giacomo Acciarini , Nicola Baresi , David Lloyd , Dario Izzo

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

In this paper we study a family of nonlinear (conditional) expectations that can be understood as a stochastic process with uncertain parameters. We develop a general framework which can be seen as a version of the martingale problem method…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-04 David Criens

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2022-04-07 Adriano Gualandi , Davide Faranda , Chris Marone , Massimo Cocco , Gianmarco Mengaldo

The Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical mechanics is used to estimate the uncertainty caused by underresolution in the solution of a nonlinear dynamical system. A general approach is outlined and applied to a simple example. The noise…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-06-14 Alexandre J. Chorin , Ole H. Hald

We present a numerical method for learning unknown nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, i.e., stochastic system subject to time dependent excitation or control signals. Our basic assumption is that the governing equations for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yuan Chen , Dongbin Xiu

The uncertainty of Compton backscattering process is studied by virtue of analytical formulas, and the special effects of variant energy spread and energy drift on the systematic uncertainty estimation are also studied with Monte Carlo…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2013-12-13 X. H. Mo

We study the flow dynamics inside a high-speed rotating cylinder after introducing strong symmetry-breaking disturbance factors at cylinder wall motion. We propose and formulate a mathematically robust stochastic model for the rotational…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-03-04 Ali Akhavan-Safaei , S. Hadi Seyedi , Mohsen Zayernouri

Polynomial chaos based methods enable the efficient computation of output variability in the presence of input uncertainty in complex models. Consequently, they have been used extensively for propagating uncertainty through a wide variety…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-18 Tuhin Sahai

In this paper, we consider the problem of propagating an uncertain distribution by a possibly non-linear function and quantifying the resulting uncertainty. We measure the uncertainty using the Wasserstein distance, and for a given input…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-13 Eduardo Figueiredo , Steven Adams , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Luca Laurenti

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Stochastic spectral methods have achieved great success in the uncertainty quantification of many engineering problems, including electronic and photonic integrated circuits influenced by fabrication process variations. Existing techniques…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

The damage detection problem becomes a more difficult task when the intrinsically nonlinear behavior of the structures and the natural data variation are considered in the analysis because both phenomena can be confused with damage if…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Luis Gustavo Gioacon Villani , Samuel da Silva , Americo Cunha , Michael D. Todd

Variable density flows occur in a variety of different systems with a wide range of scales, from astrophysics to atmospheric flows to inertial confinement fusion or reacting flows. Given the inherent limitations of RANS simulations, it is…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-01-01 Jan Felix Heyse , Zhu Huang , Gianluca Iaccarino