Related papers: Conditional Inference for Multivariate Generalised…
Diffusion models (DMs) are a type of generative model that has a huge impact on image synthesis and beyond. They achieve state-of-the-art generation results in various generative tasks. A great diversity of conditioning inputs, such as text…
We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…
In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…
We extend a recently established asymptotic normality theorem for generalized linear mixed models to include the dispersion parameter. The new results show that the maximum likelihood estimators of all model parameters have asymptotically…
The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…
The standard regression tree method applied to observations within clusters poses both methodological and implementation challenges. Effectively leveraging these data requires methods that account for both individual-level and sample-level…
We propose in this paper a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect distribution is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the…
Bayesian Generalized Nonlinear Models (BGNLM) offer a flexible nonlinear alternative to GLM while still providing better interpretability than machine learning techniques such as neural networks. In BGNLM, the methods of Bayesian Variable…
We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…
There has been much recent interest in modifying Bayesian inference for misspecified models so that it is useful for specific purposes. One popular modified Bayesian inference method is "cutting feedback" which can be used when the model…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
We introduce and study a class of probabilistic generative models, where the latent object is a finite-dimensional diffusion process on a finite time interval and the observed variable is drawn conditionally on the terminal point of the…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) provide a way to blend parametric and non-parametric (function approximation) techniques together, making them flexible tools suitable for many modeling problems. For instance, GAMs can be used to…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are widely used in research for their ability to model correlated outcomes with non-Gaussian conditional distributions. The proper selection of fixed and random effects is a critical part of the…
We present an approach for continual learning (CL) that is based on fully probabilistic (or generative) models of machine learning. In contrast to, e.g., GANs that are "generative" in the sense that they can generate samples, fully…
We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to fitting mixture models based on estimating first the posterior distribution of the auxiliary variables that assign each observation to a group in the mixture. The posterior distributions of the…
Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent…
Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…