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In this work we develop a stochastic model of acute HIV infection, based on the well-known standard model, that allows us to simulate the complex mutation pathways of HIV escape from multiple CTL responses. Under this model, we describe two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-16 Sivan Leviyang

The interpretation of vaccine efficacy estimands is subtle, even in randomized trials designed to quantify immunological effects of vaccination. In this article, we introduce terminology to distinguish between different vaccine efficacy…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-15 Mats Stensrud , Daniel Nevo , Uri Obolski

Understanding how vaccines perform against different pathogen genotypes is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies, particularly for highly genetically diverse pathogens like HIV. Sieve analysis is a statistical framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 James Peng , Michal Juraska , Pamela A. Shaw , Peter B. Gilbert

Refined vaccine regimens containing variant-matched inserts are often authorized based on historical phase 3 efficacy trials together with immunobridging studies. Phase 3 trials are essential for establishing immune biomarkers that reliably…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Pan Zhao , Peter B. Gilbert , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang

Deep learning models can generate virtual immunohistochemistry (IHC) stains from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) images, offering a scalable and low-cost alternative to laboratory IHC. However, reliable evaluation of image quality remains a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Tushar Kataria , Shikha Dubey , Mary Bronner , Jolanta Jedrzkiewicz , Ben J. Brintz , Shireen Y. Elhabian , Beatrice S. Knudsen

We introduce a new version of forward stepwise regression. Our modification finds solutions to regression problems where the selected predictors appear in a structured pattern, with respect to a predefined distance measure over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-02 Daniel Percival , Kathryn Roeder , Roni Rosenfeld , Larry Wasserman

Randomization inference is a powerful tool in early phase vaccine trials when estimating the causal effect of a regimen against a placebo or another regimen. Randomization-based inference often focuses on testing either Fisher's sharp null…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-27 Zhe Chen , Xinran Li , Bo Zhang

We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and candidate vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitopes. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-04-16 Melia E. Bonomo , Michael W. Deem

The paper proposes a time-adaptive optimization approach for determining the time-dependent immune response function in a mathematical model of acute HIV infection, using clinical data from four untreated patients. We formulate the problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 L. Beilina , I. Gainova , G. Bocharov

Current methods to optimize vaccine dose are purely empirically based, whereas in the drug development field, dosing determinations use far more advanced quantitative methodology to accelerate decision-making. Applying these established…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-11-12 Sophie J. Rhodes , Gwenan M. Knight , Denise E. Kirschner , Richard G. White , Thomas G. Evans

Understanding how genetic changes allow emerging virus strains to escape the protection afforded by vaccination is vital for the maintenance of effective vaccines. In the current work, we use structural and phylogenetic differences between…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-14 Vinny Davies , William T. Harvey , Richard Reeve , Dirk Husmeier

This paper leverages large-language models (LLMs) to experimentally determine optimal strategies for scaling up social media content annotation for stance detection on HPV vaccine-related tweets. We examine both conventional fine-tuning and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Luhang Sun , Varsha Pendyala , Yun-Shiuan Chuang , Shanglin Yang , Jonathan Feldman , Andrew Zhao , Munmun De Choudhury , Sijia Yang , Dhavan Shah

Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. For example, in HIV vaccine trials, participant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

Advances in machine learning have enabled the prediction of immune system responses to prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines. However, the engineering task of designing vaccines remains a challenge. In particular, the genetic variability of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-01-30 Zheng Dai , David Gifford

Observational data are often used to estimate real-world effectiveness and durability of vaccines. A sequence of trials can be emulated to draw inference from such data while minimizing selection bias, immortal time bias, and confounding.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Justin B. DeMonte , Bonnie E. Shook-Sa , Michael G. Hudgens

Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by empirical estimates of vaccine efficacy…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-19 Casey E. Middleton , Oliver Eales , James M. McCaw , Freya M. Shearer

Real-world vaccine effectiveness has increasingly been studied using matching-based approaches, particularly in observational cohort studies following the target trial emulation framework. Although matching is appealing in its simplicity,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Emily Wu , Elizabeth Rogawski McQuade , Mats Stensrud , Razieh Nabi , David Benkeser

Two observational methods are currently being used to monitor post-deployment vaccine effectiveness: the obvious crude method comparing rate testing positive per head of vaccinated population with that rate per head of unvaccinated…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Roger F. Sewell

We consider the problem of deciding how best to target and prioritize existing vaccines that may offer protection against new variants of an infectious disease. Sequential experiments are a promising approach; however, challenges due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Han Wu , Stefan Wager

A feature-mapping framework for inverse reconstruction of density-based topology optimization results is proposed. Unlike SIMP, whose voxelized outputs are hard to interpret or reuse, the method represents designs with high-level geometric…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Patrick Jung