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By attaching auxiliary event times to the chronologically ordered observations, we formulate the Bayesian multiple changepoint problem of discrete-time observations into that of continuous-time ones. A version of forward-filtering…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-30 Lu Shaochuan

Time-to-event data are often recorded on a discrete scale with multiple, competing risks as potential causes for the event. In this context, application of continuous survival analysis methods with a single risk suffer from biased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-14 Willem van den Boom , Maria De Iorio , Fang Qian , Alessandra Guglielmi

A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-24 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Xu Chen , Qi Ma , Christine Agarwal , Aude Hofleitner

In recent years, various means of efficiently detecting changepoints in the univariate setting have been proposed, with one popular approach involving minimising a penalised cost function using dynamic programming. In some situations, these…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-09 S. O. Tickle , I. A. Eckley , P. Fearnhead , K. Haynes

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Michalis K. Titsias , Jakub Sygnowski , Yutian Chen

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Alan Benson , Nial Friel

Symbolic regression that aims to detect underlying data-driven models has become increasingly important for industrial data analysis. For most existing algorithms such as genetic programming (GP), the convergence speed might be too slow for…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-10-31 Chen Chen , Changtong Luo , Zonglin Jiang

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-19 Paul Fearnhead , Zhen Liu

In this paper we propose new methodology for the data segmentation, also known as multiple change point problem, in a general framework including classic mean change scenarios, changes in linear regression but also changes in the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-17 Claudia Kirch , Kerstin Reckruehm

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

Particle tracking is commonly used to study time-dependent behavior in many different types of physical and chemical systems involving constituents that span many length scales, including atoms, molecules, nanoparticles, granular particles,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-08-06 Brandon L. Butler , Domagoj Fijan , Sharon C. Glotzer

Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Tim De Ryck , Maarten De Vos , Alexander Bertrand

In this article, we consider change point inference for high dimensional linear models. For change point detection, given any subgroup of variables, we propose a new method for testing the homogeneity of corresponding regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Bin Liu , Xinsheng Zhang , Yufeng Liu

We propose a new nonparametric procedure for the detection and estimation of multiple structural breaks in the autocovariance function of a multivariate (second- order) piecewise stationary process, which also identifies the components of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-06 Philip Preuß , Ruprecht Puchstein , Holger Dette

A simultaneous change-point detection and estimation in a piece-wise constant model is a common task in modern statistics. If, in addition, the whole estimation can be performed automatically, in just one single step without going through…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-16 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matúš Maciak

We propose a new sequential monitoring scheme for changes in the parameters of a multivariate time series. In contrast to procedures proposed in the literature which compare an estimator from the training sample with an estimator calculated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Josua Gösmann , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette

We consider the problem of analyzing multivariate time series collected on multiple subjects, with the goal of identifying groups of subjects exhibiting similar trends in their recorded measurements over time as well as time-varying groups…

When a predictive model is in production, it must be monitored in real-time to ensure that its performance does not suffer due to drift or abrupt changes to data. Ideally, this is done long before learning that the performance of the model…