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This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Thomas Nagler , Tobias Brock , Nicolai Palm

We revisit the famous Mack's model which gives an estimate for the conditional mean squared error of prediction of the chain-ladder claims reserves. We introduce a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion to model the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Nicolas Baradel

The evolution of a large class of biological, physical and engineering systems can be studied through both dynamical systems theory and Hamiltonian mechanics. The former theory, in particular its specialization to study systems with…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-09-13 Pietro Luciano Buono , Bernard S. Chan , Antonio Palacios , Visarath In

In time series analysis, traditional bootstrapping methods often fall short due to their assumption of data independence, a condition rarely met in time-dependent data. This paper introduces tsbootstrap, a python package designed…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-24 Sankalp Gilda , Benedikt Heidrich , Franz Kiraly

We make an ansatz for the Mellin representation of the four-point amplitude of half-BPS operators of arbitrary charges at order $\lambda^{-\frac{5}{2}}$ in an expansion around the supergravity limit. Crossing symmetry and a set of…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2023-08-14 J. M. Drummond , H. Paul , M. Santagata

We report the computational discovery of complex, topologically charged, and spectrally stable states in three-dimensional multi-component nonlinear wave systems of nonlinear Schr{\"o}dinger type. While our computations relate to…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2023-02-01 N. Boullé , I. Newell , P. E. Farrell , P. G. Kevrekidis

Moment closure methods are widely used to analyze mathematical models. They are specifically geared toward derivation of approximations of moments of stochastic models, and of similar quantities in other models. The methods possess several…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-12 Ingemar Nåsell

We present a fully Bayesian statistical approach to the problem of compartmental modelling in the context of Positron Emission Tomography. We cluster homogeneous region of interest and perform kinetic parameter estimation simultaneously. A…

We assume a second-order source separation model where the observed multivariate time series is a linear mixture of latent, temporally uncorrelated time series with some components pure white noise. To avoid the modelling of noise, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-07 Markus Matilainen , Klaus Nordhausen , Joni Virta

This paper proposes a new bootstrap method to compute predictive intervals for nonlinear autoregressive time series model forecast. This method we call the splice boobstrap as it involves splicing the last p values of a given series to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-25 Gerard Keogh

A two-mode Bose-Einstein condensate coupled by a high-frequency modulation field is found to display rich features. An effective stationary Hamiltonian approach reveals the emergence of additional degenerate eigenstates as well as new…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Qi Zhang , Peter Hanggi , Jiangbin Gong

Factor and sparse models are two widely used methods to impose a low-dimensional structure in high-dimensions. However, they are seemingly mutually exclusive. We propose a lifting method that combines the merits of these two models in a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Jianqing Fan , Ricardo Masini , Marcelo C. Medeiros

Chance-constrained motion planning requires uncertainty in dynamics to be propagated into uncertainty in state. When nonlinear models are used, Gaussian assumptions on the state distribution do not necessarily apply since almost all random…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-31 Allen Wang , Ashkan Jasour , Brian Williams

Motivated by statistical inference problems in high-dimensional time series data analysis, we first derive non-asymptotic error bounds for Gaussian approximations of sums of high-dimensional dependent random vectors on hyper-rectangles,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Jinyuan Chang , Xiaohui Chen , Mingcong Wu

The moments of spatial probabilistic systems are often given by an infinite hierarchy of coupled differential equations. Moment closure methods are used to approximate a subset of low order moments by terminating the hierarchy at some order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Oliver K. Ernst , Tom Bartol , Terrence Sejnowski , Eric Mjolsness

We review recent progress in the analytic study of random matrix models suggested by noncommutative geometry. One considers fuzzy spectral triples where the space of possible Dirac operators is assigned a probability distribution. These…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2022-10-12 Hamed Hessam , Masoud Khalkhali , Nathan Pagliaroli , Luuk Verhoeven

We consider the problem of modeling high-speed flows using machine learning methods. While most prior studies focus on low-speed fluid flows in which uniform time-stepping is practical, flows approaching and exceeding the speed of sound…

In this paper, we tackle the copy-paste image-to-image composition problem with a focus on object placement learning. Prior methods have leveraged generative models to reduce the reliance for dense supervision. However, this often limits…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Hang Zhou , Xinxin Zuo , Rui Ma , Li Cheng

Biclustering is a class of techniques that simultaneously clusters the rows and columns of a matrix to sort heterogeneous data into homogeneous blocks. Although many algorithms have been proposed to find biclusters, existing methods suffer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-11 Michelle N. Ngo , Dustin S. Pluta , Alexander N. Ngo , Babak Shahbaba

Accurate uncertainty estimates can significantly improve the performance of iterative design of experiments, as in Sequential and Reinforcement learning. For many such problems in engineering and the physical sciences, the design task…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-20 Brendan Folie , Maxwell Hutchinson
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