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With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang

In this article, we develop a set-oriented numerical methodology which allows to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) for dynamical systems from a global point of view. That is, for systems with uncertain parameters we approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-08-29 Michael Dellnitz , Stefan Klus , Adrian Ziessler

Manifold-learning techniques are routinely used in mining complex spatiotemporal data to extract useful, parsimonious data representations/parametrizations; these are, in turn, useful in nonlinear model identification tasks. We focus here…

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Tiejin Chen , Xiaoou Liu , Longchao Da , Jia Chen , Vagelis Papalexakis , Hua Wei

Polynomial chaos is a powerful technique for propagating uncertainty through ordinary and partial differential equations. Random variables are expanded in terms of orthogonal polynomials and differential equations are derived for the…

Computation · Statistics 2014-06-18 José Miguel Pasini , Tuhin Sahai

Experimental quantum simulators have become large and complex enough that discovering new physics from the huge amount of measurement data can be quite challenging, especially when little theoretical understanding of the simulated model is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-12-08 Alexander Lidiak , Zhexuan Gong

Dimensionally decomposed generalized polynomial chaos expansion (DD-GPCE) efficiently performs forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) in complex engineering systems with high-dimensional random inputs of arbitrary distributions. However,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Hojun Choi , Eunho Heo , Dongjin Lee

Drawing motivation from the manifold hypothesis, which posits that most high-dimensional data lies on or near low-dimensional manifolds, we apply manifold learning to the space of neural networks. We learn manifolds where datapoints are…

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-21 Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari , Mingjian Wen

The univariate dimension reduction (UDR) method stands as a way to estimate the statistical moments of the output that is effective in a large class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems. UDR's fundamental strategy is to approximate…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Bingran Wang , Nicholas C. Orndorff , Mark Sperry , John T. Hwang

Learning data representations under uncertainty is an important task that emerges in numerous scientific computing and data analysis applications. However, uncertainty quantification techniques are computationally intensive and become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Paz Fink Shustin , Shashanka Ubaru , Małgorzata J. Zimoń , Songtao Lu , Vasileios Kalantzis , Lior Horesh , Haim Avron

Manifold learning approaches seek the intrinsic, low-dimensional data structure within a high-dimensional space. Mainstream manifold learning algorithms, such as Isomap, UMAP, $t$-SNE, Diffusion Map, and Laplacian Eigenmaps do not use data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Jake S. Rhodes

We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

In recent years, operator learning, particularly the DeepONet, has received much attention for efficiently learning complex mappings between input and output functions across diverse fields. However, in practical scenarios with limited and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Andrew Pensoneault , Xueyu Zhu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial for ensuring the reliability of machine learning models deployed in real-world autonomous systems. However, existing approaches typically quantify task-level output prediction uncertainty without…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Luke Chen , Junyao Wang , Trier Mortlock , Pramod Khargonekar , Mohammad Abdullah Al Faruque

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Polynomial chaos based methods enable the efficient computation of output variability in the presence of input uncertainty in complex models. Consequently, they have been used extensively for propagating uncertainty through a wide variety…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-18 Tuhin Sahai

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt