Related papers: Probability density evolution filter
We present a new method to approximate posterior probabilities of Bayesian Network using Deep Neural Network. Experiment results on several public Bayesian Network datasets shows that Deep Neural Network is capable of learning joint…
Pair Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) are probabilistic models used for pairwise sequence alignment, a quintessential problem in bioinformatics. PHMMs include three types of hidden states: match, insertion and deletion. Most previous studies…
The probability density function (PDF) of a random variable associated with the solution of a partial differential equation (PDE) with random parameters is approximated using a truncated series expansion. The random PDE is solved using two…
Bayes' rule has enabled innumerable powerful algorithms of statistical signal processing and statistical machine learning. However, when model misspecifications exist in prior and/or data distributions, the direct application of Bayes' rule…
We discuss an approach to probabilistic forecasting based on two chained machine-learning steps: a dimensional reduction step that learns a reduction map of predictor information to a low-dimensional space in a manner designed to preserve…
Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…
Density estimation plays a crucial role in many data analysis tasks, as it infers a continuous probability density function (PDF) from discrete samples. Thus, it is used in tasks as diverse as analyzing population data, spatial locations in…
Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…
We present two approaches to system identification, i.e. the identification of partial differential equations (PDEs) from measurement data. The first is a regression-based Variational System Identification procedure that is advantageous in…
When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…
Particle flow (PFL) is an effective method for overcoming particle degeneracy, the main limitation of particle filtering. In PFL, particles are migrated towards regions of high likelihood based on the solution of a partial differential…
Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…
We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…
We develop a (nearly) unbiased particle filtering algorithm for a specific class of continuous-time state-space models, such that (a) the latent process $X_t$ is a linear Gaussian diffusion; and (b) the observations arise from a Poisson…
A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…
In the simple vs composite hypothesis test with a proper prior, the Bayes Factor (BF) is shown to be the posterior mean of the Likelihood Ratio (LR). Therefore, the posterior standard deviation of the LR or rather its posterior cumulative…
We analyze the performance of different resampling strategies for the regularized particle filter regarding parameter estimation. We show in particular, building on analytical insight obtained in the linear Gaussian case, that resampling…
Learning probabilistic models that can estimate the density of a given set of samples, and generate samples from that density, is one of the fundamental challenges in unsupervised machine learning. We introduce a new generative model based…
Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…
In image reconstruction, an accurate quantification of uncertainty is of great importance for informed decision making. Here, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems can be used: the image is represented through a random function that…