Related papers: Volatility of S&P500: Estimation and Evaluation
We introduce a simple stochastic volatility model, whose novelty consists in taking into account hitting times of the asset price, and study the optimal stopping problem corresponding to a put option whose time horizon (after the asset…
This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions…
Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct…
A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…
In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…
Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep…
This study examines the performance of a volatility-based strategy using Chinese equity index ETF options. Initially successful, the strategy's effectiveness waned post-2018. By integrating GARCH models for volatility forecasting, the…
This paper seeks to forecast intraday volatility curves for major foreign exchange (FX) currencies using functional GARCH models. Intraday return curves are observed at a daily frequency, yet preserve the full high-frequency trading…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…
The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…
This paper proposes a new integrated variance estimator based on order statistics within the framework of jump-diffusion models. Its ability to disentangle the integrated variance from the total process quadratic variation is confirmed by…
In this paper, an application of three GARCH-type models (sGARCH, iGARCH, and tGARCH) with Student t-distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED), and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution are examined. The new development allows…
We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…