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Related papers: Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo for Probabilities

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This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and unbiased estimators recently proposed by McLeish (Monte Carlo Methods Appl., 2011) and Rhee and Glynn (Oper. Res., 2015) are closely related. This connection is elaborated by presenting a new general class…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Matti Vihola

We aim at analyzing in terms of a.s. convergence and weak rate the performances of the Multilevel Monte Carlo estimator (MLMC) introduced in [Gil08] and of its weighted version, the Multilevel Richardson Romberg estimator (ML2R), introduced…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Daphné Giorgi , Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Rupak Majumdar , Tigran Nagapetyan

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two non-matching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Sarah Osborn , Patrick Zulian , Thomas Benson , Umberto Villa , Rolf Krause , Panayot S. Vassilevski

We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 Guneykan Ozgul , Xiantao Li , Mehrdad Mahdavi , Chunhao Wang

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

Designing efficient learning algorithms with complexity guarantees for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large or continuous state and action spaces remains a fundamental challenge. We address this challenge for entropy-regularized MDPs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Matthieu Meunier , Christoph Reisinger , Yufei Zhang

General elliptic equations with spatially discontinuous diffusion coefficients may be used as a simplified model for subsurface flow in heterogeneous or fractured porous media. In such a model, data sparsity and measurement errors are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-29 Andrea Barth , Robin Merkle

We discuss the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. Such problems arise, for example, in uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow modeling. We give a brief…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-06-08 A. L. Teckentrup

One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Youhan Fang , Jesus-Maria Sanz-Serna , Robert D. Skeel

The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-03 William Ruth

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are popular samplers for approximate inference, but they are generally biased. We show that many recent versions of these methods (e.g. Chen et al. (2014)) cannot be corrected using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Vincent Fortuin

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

As the amount and complexity of available data increases, the need for robust statistical learning becomes more pressing. To enhance resilience against model misspecification, the generalized posterior inference method adjusts the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-04 Masahiro Tanaka

The computational complexity of naive, sampling-based uncertainty quantification for 3D partial differential equations is extremely high. Multilevel approaches, such as multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC), can reduce the complexity significantly,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-07-13 Björn Gmeiner , Daniel Drzisga , Ulrich Ruede , Robert Scheichl , Barbara Wohlmuth

Nested integration problems arise in various scientific and engineering applications, including Bayesian experimental design, financial risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. These nested integrals take the form $\int f\left(\int…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Arved Bartuska , André Gustavo Carlon , Luis Espath , Sebastian Krumscheid , Raúl Tempone

A statistical learning approach for parametric PDEs related to Uncertainty Quantification is derived. The method is based on the minimization of an empirical risk on a selected model class and it is shown to be applicable to a broad range…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Martin Eigel , Reinhold Schneider , Philipp Trunschke , Sebastian Wolf