Related papers: A New Attempt to Identify Long-term Precursors for…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
The understanding of complex systems has become a central issue because complex systems exist in a wide range of scientific disciplines. Time series are typical experimental results we have about complex systems. In the analysis of such…
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S\&P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and…
This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…
This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author…
A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of…
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as…
Complex systems are usually non-stationary and their dynamics is often dominated by collective effects. Collectivity, defined as coherent motion of the whole system or of some of its parts, manifests itself in the time-dependent structures…
This article demonstrates the possibility of constructing indicators of critical and crisis phenomena in the volatile market of cryptocurrency. For this purpose, the methods of the theory of complex systems such as recurrent analysis of…
Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…
We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure.…
Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the…
Detailed analysis of the log-periodic structures as precursors of the financial crashes is presented. The study is mainly based on the German Stock Index (DAX) variation over the 1998 period which includes both, a spectacular boom and a…
Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that…
Financial markets, being spectacular examples of complex systems, display rich correlation structures among price returns of different assets. The correlation structures change drastically, akin to phase transitions in physical phenomena,…
Financial global crisis has devastating impacts to economies since early XX century and continues to impose increasing collateral damages for governments, enterprises, and society in general. Up to now, all efforts to obtain efficient…
Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes…
It is suggested to consider long term trends of financial markets as a growth phenomenon. The question that is asked is what conditions are needed for a long term sustainable growth or contraction in a financial market? The paper discuss…
The aim of this work is to build financial crisis indicators based on spectral properties of the dynamics of market data. After choosing an optimal size for a rolling window, the historical market data in this window is seen every trading…