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In a causal graphical model, an instrument for a variable X and its effect Y is a random variable that is a cause of X and independent of all the causes of Y except X. (Pearl (1995), Spirtes et al (2000)). Instrumental variables can be used…
How can we explain the predictions of a black-box model? In this paper, we use influence functions -- a classic technique from robust statistics -- to trace a model's prediction through the learning algorithm and back to its training data,…
Dependence is undoubtedly a central concept in statistics. Though, it proves difficult to locate in the literature a formal definition which goes beyond the self-evident 'dependence = non-independence'. This absence has allowed the term…
The intuition of causation is so fundamental that almost every research study in life sciences refers to this concept. However a widely accepted formal definition of causal influence between observables is still missing. In the framework of…
The area of population dynamics has a rich history of the development and analysis of models of biological and social phenomena using ordinary differential equations. This paper describes a method for understanding the influence one…
Most traditional models of uncertainty have focused on the associational relationship among variables as captured by conditional dependence. In order to successfully manage intelligent systems for decision making, however, we must be able…
The subject of this textbook is the analysis of Boolean functions. Roughly speaking, this refers to studying Boolean functions $f : \{0,1\}^n \to \{0,1\}$ via their Fourier expansion and other analytic means. Boolean functions are perhaps…
This manuscript includes some classical results we select apart from the new results we've found on the Analysis of Boolean Functions and Fourier-Entropy-Influence conjecture. We try to ensure the self-completeness of this work so that…
We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…
We provide an inferential framework to assess variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects. This assessment is especially useful in high-risk domains such as medicine, where decision makers hesitate to rely on black-box treatment…
This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…
Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true…
In this article, we study the effect of vector-valued interventions in votes under a binary voter model, where each voter expresses their vote as a $0-1$ valued random variable to choose between two candidates. We assume that the outcome is…
We establish bounds for the covariance of a large class of functions of infinite variance stable random variables, including unbounded functions such as the power function and the logarithm. These bounds involve measures of dependence…
Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This paper examines the perfor- mance of a wide variety of social network based measurements…
Items in a test are often used as a basis for making decisions and such tests are therefore required to have good psychometric properties, like unidimensionality. In many cases the sum score is used in combination with a threshold to decide…
Recognizing, quantifying and visualizing associations between two variables is increasingly important. This paper investigates how a new function-valued measure of dependence, the quantile dependence function, can be used to construct tests…
Measuring and quantifying dependencies between random variables (RV's) can give critical insights into a data-set. Typical questions are: `Do underlying relationships exist?', `Are some variables redundant?', and `Is some target variable…
We present a regularity lemma for Boolean functions $f:\{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$ based on noisy influence, a measure of how locally correlated $f$ is with each input bit. We provide an application of the regularity lemma to weaken the…
There are many nonparametric objects of interest that are a function of a conditional distribution. One important example is an average treatment effect conditional on a subset of covariates. Many of these objects have a conditional…