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Approximate variational inference has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling unknown complex probability distributions. Recent advances in the field allow us to learn probabilistic models of sequences that actively exploit spatial and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-15 Maximilian Soelch , Justin Bayer , Marvin Ludersdorfer , Patrick van der Smagt

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are established tools to model physical phenomena whose dynamics are affected by random noise. By estimating parameters of an SDE intrinsic randomness of a system around its drift can be identified…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Umberto Picchini , Susanne Ditlevsen

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-16 Vitaly Kuznetsov , Mehryar Mohri

Multivariate time series modeling and prediction problems are abundant in many machine learning application domains. Accurate interpretation of such prediction outcomes from a machine learning model that explicitly captures temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Tryambak Gangopadhyay , Sin Yong Tan , Zhanhong Jiang , Rui Meng , Soumik Sarkar

We introduce a novel grid-independent model for learning partial differential equations (PDEs) from noisy and partial observations on irregular spatiotemporal grids. We propose a space-time continuous latent neural PDE model with an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Valerii Iakovlev , Markus Heinonen , Harri Lähdesmäki

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a ubiquitous modeling framework that finds applications in physics, biology, engineering, social science, and finance. Due to the availability of large-scale data sets, there is growing interest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ziheng Guo , James Greene , Ming Zhong

The data-driven discovery of interpretable models approximating the underlying dynamics of a physical system has gained attraction in the past decade. Current approaches employ pre-specified functional forms or basis functions and often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Rahul Golder , M. M. Faruque Hasan

The intersection of machine learning and dynamical systems has generated considerable interest recently. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) represent a rich overlap between these fields. In this paper, we develop a continuous…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Maria Oprea , Mark Walth , Robert Stephany , Gabriella Torres Nothaft , Arnaldo Rodriguez-Gonzalez , William Clark

Addressing the challenges of irregularity and concept drift in streaming time series is crucial for real-world predictive modelling. Previous studies in time series continual learning often propose models that require buffering long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Futoon M. Abushaqra , Hao Xue , Yongli Ren , Flora D. Salim

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are elegant reinterpretations of deep networks where continuous time can replace the discrete notion of depth, ODE solvers perform forward propagation, and the adjoint method enables efficient,…

We introduce a novel paradigm for learning non-parametric drift and diffusion functions for stochastic differential equation (SDE). The proposed model learns to simulate path distributions that match observations with non-uniform time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Cagatay Yildiz , Markus Heinonen , Jukka Intosalmi , Henrik Mannerström , Harri Lähdesmäki

System identification in scenarios where the observed number of variables is less than the degrees of freedom in the dynamics is an important challenge. In this work we tackle this problem by using a recognition network to increase the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-10-14 Constantino A. Garcia , Paulo Felix , Jesus M. Presedo , Abraham Otero

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-19 Gavin A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Richard J. Boys , Chris Sherlock

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) -- parametrizations of differential equations using neural networks -- have shown tremendous promise in learning models of unknown continuous-time dynamical systems from data. However, every…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Franck Djeumou , Cyrus Neary , Eric Goubault , Sylvie Putot , Ufuk Topcu

Learning network dynamics from the empirical structure and spatio-temporal observation data is crucial to revealing the interaction mechanisms of complex networks in a wide range of domains. However, most existing methods only aim at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Jiaxu Cui , Bingyi Sun , Jiming Liu , Bo Yang

Recent advances in stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have enabled robust modeling of real-world dynamical processes across diverse domains, such as finance, health, and systems biology. However, parameter estimation for SDEs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Long Van Tran , Truyen Tran , Phuoc Nguyen

Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-10 Yulia Rubanova , Ricky T. Q. Chen , David Duvenaud

Under a smart grid paradigm, there has been an increase in sensor installations to enhance situational awareness. The measurements from these sensors can be leveraged for real-time monitoring, control, and protection. However, these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-09 Shweta Dahale , Sai Munikoti , Balasubramaniam Natarajan , Rui Yang

Identifying unknown differential equations from a given set of discrete time dependent data is a challenging problem. A small amount of noise can make the recovery unstable, and nonlinearity and differential equations with varying…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-04-09 Sung Ha Kang , Wenjing Liao , Yingjie Liu

Node-perturbation learning is a type of statistical gradient descent algorithm that can be applied to problems where the objective function is not explicitly formulated, including reinforcement learning. It estimates the gradient of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-22 Kazuyuki Hara , Kentaro Katahira , Masato Okada