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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Kernel Density Estimation is a very popular technique of approximating a density function from samples. The accuracy is generally well-understood and depends, roughly speaking, on the kernel decay and local smoothness of the true density.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Maciej Skorski

Softmax is the most commonly used output function for multiclass problems and is widely used in areas such as vision, natural language processing, and recommendation. A softmax model has linear costs in the number of classes which makes it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-03 Guy Blanc , Steffen Rendle

Imbalanced response variable distribution is a common occurrence in data science. In fields such as fraud detection, medical diagnostics, system intrusion detection and many others where abnormal behavior is rarely observed the data under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Firuz Kamalov

Kernel density estimation is a well known method involving a smoothing parameter (the bandwidth) that needs to be tuned by the user. Although this method has been widely used the bandwidth selection remains a challenging issue in terms of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Suzanne Varet , Claire Lacour , Pascal Massart , Vincent Rivoirard

Kernel-based reinforcement learning (KBRL) stands out among reinforcement learning algorithms for its strong theoretical guarantees. By casting the learning problem as a local kernel approximation, KBRL provides a way of computing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-22 André M. S. Barreto , Doina Precup , Joelle Pineau

Averaging predictions of a deep ensemble of networks is apopular and effective method to improve predictive performance andcalibration in various benchmarks and Kaggle competitions. However, theruntime and training cost of deep ensembles…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Timo Sämann , Ahmed Mostafa Hammam , Andrei Bursuc , Christoph Stiller , Horst-Michael Groß

Scaling analysis, in which one infers scaling exponents and a scaling function in a scaling law from given data, is a powerful tool for determining universal properties of critical phenomena in many fields of science. However, there are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-07-08 Kenji Harada

This paper provides a new theoretical lens for understanding the finite-sample performance of kernel-based specification tests, such as the Kernel Conditional Moment (KCM) test. Rather than introducing a fundamentally new test, we isolate…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-15 Cui Rui , Li Yuhao , Song Xiaojun

This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-23 Motonobu Kanagawa , Yu Nishiyama , Arthur Gretton , Kenji Fukumizu

Despite empirical risk minimization (ERM) is widely applied in the machine learning community, its performance is limited on data with spurious correlation or subpopulation that is introduced by hidden attributes. Existing literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Hongyu Shen , Zhizhen Zhao

It is well-known that the high computational complexity and the insufficient samples in large-scale array signal processing restrict the real-world applications of the conventional full-dimensional adaptive beamforming (sample matrix…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-05-20 Hu Xie , Da-Zheng Feng , Ming-Dong Yuan

Black box optimization (BBO) focuses on optimizing unknown functions in high-dimensional spaces. In many applications, sampling the unknown function is expensive, imposing a tight sample budget. Ongoing work is making progress on reducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Rajalaxmi Rajagopalan , Yu-Lin Wei , Romit Roy Choudhury

Binary Neural Network (BNN) represents convolution weights with 1-bit values, which enhances the efficiency of storage and computation. This paper is motivated by a previously revealed phenomenon that the binary kernels in successful BNNs…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Yikai Wang , Wenbing Huang , Yinpeng Dong , Fuchun Sun , Anbang Yao

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is the problem of estimating the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given samples from the mixture and component. This problem constitutes a key part in many "weakly supervised learning"…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Harish G. Ramaswamy , Clayton Scott , Ambuj Tewari

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

We propose a kernel-based partial permutation test for checking the equality of functional relationship between response and covariates among different groups. The main idea, which is intuitive and easy to implement, is to keep the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-01 Xinran Li , Bo Jiang , Jun S. Liu
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