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Consider $2k-1$ voters, each of which has a preference ranking between $n$ given alternatives. An alternative $A$ is called a Condorcet winner, if it wins against every other alternative $B$ in majority voting (meaning that for every other…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-28 Lisa Sauermann

After a short review of the historical milestones on normal numbers, we introduce the Borel numbers as the reals admitting a probability function on their different bases representations. In this setting, we provide two probabilistic…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Nicolò Cangiotti , Daniele Taufer

Contextual situations are those in which seemingly "the same" random variable changes its identity depending on the conditions under which it is recorded. Such a change of identity is observed whenever the assumption that the variable is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-19 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-20 Pierre Collet , Antonio Galves , Florencia G. Leonardi

Consider a finite set of sources, each producing i.i.d. observations that follow a unique probability distribution on a finite alphabet. We study the problem of matching a finite set of observed sequences to the set of sources under the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-12-09 Jayakrishnan Unnikrishnan

Estimating the unknown number of classes in a population has numerous important applications. In a Poisson mixture model, the problem is reduced to estimating the odds that a class is undetected in a sample. The discontinuity of the odds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Chang Xuan Mao , Bruce G. Lindsay

The correlation between a random sequence and its transformed sequences is studied. In the case of a permutation operation or, in other word, the shuffling operation, it is shown that the correlation can be so small that the sequences can…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2015-06-25 Nobuyasu Ito , Macoto Kikuchi , Yutaka Okabe

We examine two types of similarity networks each based on a distinct notion of relevance. For both types of similarity networks we present an efficient inference algorithm that works under the assumption that every event has a nonzero…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Dan Geiger , David Heckerman

We call an interval $[x,y]$ in a poset {\em small} if $y$ is the join of some elements covering $x$. In this paper, we study the chains of paths from a given arbitrary (binary) path $P$ to the maximum path having only small intervals. More…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-11-26 I. Tasoulas , K. Manes , A. Sapounakis , P. Tsikouras

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Beau Coker , Cynthia Rudin , Gary King

Interval estimation of the probability of success in a Binomial model is considered. Zieli\'nski (2018) showed that the confidence interval which uses information about non-homogeneity of the sample is better than the classical one. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Stanisław Jaworski , Wojciech Zieliński

A sequence $x_1,\dots,x_n,\dots$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, one is required to give conditional probabilities of the next…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-12-30 Daniil Ryabko

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

This paper contains an answer to the question of existence of regularities of the so called \textit{random in a broad sense} mass phenomena, asked by A. N. Kolmogorov in \cite{Kolmogorov}. It turns out that some family of finitely-additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-29 Victor I. Ivanenko , Valery A. Labkovsky

A new definition of random sets is proposed. It is based on the distance in measurable space and uses negative definite kernels for continuation from initial space to that of random sets. This approach has no connection to Hausdorff…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Vesna Gotovac , Kateřina Helisova , Lev B. Klebanov , Irina V. Volchenkova

We study countable graphs that -- up to isomorphism and with probability one -- arise from a random process, in a similar fashion as the Rado graph. Unlike in the classical case, we do not require that probabilities assigned to pairs of…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Ziemowit Kostana , Jarosław Swaczyna , Agnieszka Widz

A real is called integer-valued random if no integer-valued martingale can win arbitrarily much capital betting against it. A real is low for integer-valued randomness if no integer-valued martingale recursive in A can succeed on an…

Logic · Mathematics 2014-10-14 Ian Herbert

Probability of coincidental clustering among the orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-06-28 Tadeusz J. Jopek , Malgorzata Bronikowska

We formalize the idea of probability distributions that lead to reliable predictions about some, but not all aspects of a domain. The resulting notion of `safety' provides a fresh perspective on foundational issues in statistics, providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-08 Peter Grünwald

Can a probabilistic gambler get arbitrarily rich when all deterministic gamblers fail? We study this problem in the context of algorithmic randomness, introducing a new notion -- almost everywhere computable randomness. A binary sequence…

Logic · Mathematics 2021-12-09 Laurent Bienvenu , Valentino Delle Rose , Tomasz Steifer