Related papers: Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in…
Global warming may induce in Western Europe an increase in storms. Hence the forest managers will have to take into account the risk increase. We study the impact of storm risk at the stand level. From the analytical expressions of the…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
Stringent climate policy compatible with the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement would pose a substantial fiscal challenge. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 95% or more by 2050 would raise 7% (1-17%) of GDP in carbon tax revenue, half…
Windstorms significantly impact the UK, causing extensive damage to property, disrupting society, and potentially resulting in loss of life. Accurate modelling and understanding of such events are essential for effective risk assessment and…
Extreme wildfires are a significant cause of human death and biodiversity destruction within countries that encompass the Mediterranean Basin. Recent worrying trends in wildfire activity (i.e., occurrence and spread) suggest that wildfires…
Recently, economic depression, which scoured all over the world, affects business organizations and banking sectors. Such economic pose causes a severe attrition for banks and customer retention becomes impossible. Accordingly, marketing…
Climate Services (CS) provide support to decision makers across socio-economic sectors. In the agricultural sector, one of the most important CS applications is to provide timely and accurate yield forecasts based on climate prediction. In…
The United Nations has identified improving food security and reducing hunger as essential components of its sustainable development goals. As of 2021, approximately 828 million people worldwide are experiencing hunger and malnutrition,…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
Short-term survival and an exuberant plunge into building our future are generating a new kind of unintended consequence -- hidden fragility. This is a direct effect of the sophistication and structural complexity of the socio-technical…
Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular…
Drought is a costly natural hazard, many aspects of which remain poorly understood. It has many contributory factors, driving its outset, duration, and severity, including land surface, anthropogenic activities, and, most importantly,…
Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves at and after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for the time-dependent and…
Climate (change) affects the prices of goods and services in different countries or regions differently. Simply relying on aggregate measures or summary statistics, such as the impact of average country temperature changes on HICP headline…
Large variations of European storm activity at decadal and longer timescales have been found to be driven by major tropical volcanic eruptions, internal climate variability and anthropogenic aerosols (AA). The insurance industry have the…
As climate change poses new and more unpredictable challenges to society, insurance is an essential avenue to protect against loss caused by extreme events. Traditional insurance risk models employ statistical analyses that are inaccurate…