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Count data play a crucial role in sports analytics, providing valuable insights into various aspects of the game. Models that accurately capture the characteristics of count data are essential for making reliable inferences. In this paper,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-26 Mauro Florez , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions represents a challenging suite of problems in modern statistics. In this work we analyse the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution, a two parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-13 Alan Benson , Nial Friel

A new three parameter natural extension of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution is proposed. This distribution includes the recently proposed COM-Poisson type negative binomial (COM-NB) distribution [Chakraborty, S. and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Subrata Chakraborty , Tomoaki Imoto

Poisson regression is a popular tool for modeling count data and is applied in a vast array of applications from the social to the physical sciences and beyond. Real data, however, are often over- or under-dispersed and, thus, not conducive…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-10 Kimberly F. Sellers , Galit Shmueli

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Jackie Siaw Tze Wong , Emiliano A. Valdez

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Barry C. Arnold , Indranil Ghosh

Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distributions are flexible generalizations of the Poisson distribution for modelling overdispersed or underdispersed counts. The main hindrance to their wider use in practice seems to be the inability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-15 Alan Huang

Count data with complex features arise in many disciplines, including ecology, agriculture, criminology, medicine, and public health. Zero inflation, spatial dependence, and non-equidispersion are common features in count data. There are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Bokgyeong Kang , John Hughes , Murali Haran

We propose a tree-based semi-varying coefficient model for the Conway-Maxwell- Poisson (CMP or COM-Poisson) distribution which is a two-parameter generalization of the Poisson distribution and is flexible enough to capture both…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-27 Suneel Babu Chatla , Galit Shmueli

We propose a flexible model for count time series which has potential uses for both underdispersed and overdispersed data. The model is based on the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution with parameters varying along time to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-23 Ricardo S Ehlers

In wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, 2019-2020 soccer seasons across the world were postponed and eventually made up during the summer months of 2020. Researchers from a variety of disciplines jumped at the opportunity to compare the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-01 Luke S. Benz , Michael J. Lopez

Bimodal truncated count distributions are frequently observed in aggregate survey data and in user ratings when respondents are mixed in their opinion. They also arise in censored count data, where the highest category might create an…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-24 Pragya Sur , Galit Shmueli , Smarajit Bose , Paromita Dubey

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) or COM-Poison regression is a popular model for count data due to its ability to capture both under dispersion and over dispersion. However, CMP regression is limited when dealing with complex nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-27 Suneel Babu Chatla , Galit Shmueli

This paper proposes a generalized binomial distribution with four parameters, which is derived from the finite capacity queueing system with state-dependent service and arrival rates. This distribution is also generated from the conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Imoto Tomoaki , Ng Choung Min , Ong Seng Huat , Subrata Chakraborty

Bayesian models that can handle both over and under dispersed counts are rare in the literature, perhaps because full probability distributions for dispersed counts are rather difficult to construct. This note takes a first look at Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-08 Alan Huang , Andy Sang Il Kim

Doubly intractable problems occur when both the likelihood and the posterior are available only in unnormalised form, with computationally intractable normalisation constants. Bayesian inference then typically requires direct approximation…

The study of sums of possibly associated Bernoulli random variables has been hampered by an asymmetry between positive correlation and negative correlation. The Conway-Maxwell Binomial (COMB) distribution and its multivariate extension, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-08 Joseph B. Kadane

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution is a natural two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution which has received some attention in the statistics literature in recent years by offering flexible generalisations of some…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-17 Fraser Daly , Robert E. Gaunt

The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-06 Rouven Michels , Marius Ötting , Dimitris Karlis

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Ye Wang , David Dunson
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