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The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

This paper introduces a framework for combining scientific knowledge of physics-based models with neural networks to advance scientific discovery. This framework, termed physics-guided neural networks (PGNN), leverages the output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Arka Daw , Anuj Karpatne , William Watkins , Jordan Read , Vipin Kumar

A data-driven model for predicting the surface temperature using neural networks was proposed to alleviate the computational burden of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Our model, named TPTNet uses only 2m temperature measured at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Jun Park , Changhoon Lee

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

Sea subsurface temperature, an essential component of aquatic wildlife, underwater dynamics and heat transfer with the sea surface, is affected by global warming in climate change. Existing research is commonly based on either physics-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Yuxin Meng , Eric Rigall , Xueen Chen , Feng Gao , Junyu Dong , Sheng Chen

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical…

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 David Landry , Anastase Charantonis , Claire Monteleoni

We present a significantly-improved data-driven global weather forecasting framework using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to forecast several basic atmospheric variables on a global grid. New developments in this framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-14 Jonathan A. Weyn , Dale R. Durran , Rich Caruana

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require ever-growing computing time/resources, but still, have difficulties with predicting weather extremes. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that is based on analog forecasting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-22 Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Ebrahim Nabizadeh , Pedram Hassanzadeh

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Stephan Rasp , Michael S. Pritchard , Pierre Gentine

Two distinct features of anthropogenic climate change, warming in the tropical upper troposphere and warming at the Arctic surface, have competing effects on the mid-latitude jet stream's latitudinal position, often referred to as a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-03 Charlotte Connolly , Elizabeth A. Barnes , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Mike Pritchard

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-15 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Kirsten Mayer , Benjamin Toms , Zane Martin , Emily Gordon

We propose the use of physics-informed neural networks for solving the shallow-water equations on the sphere in the meteorological context. Physics-informed neural networks are trained to satisfy the differential equations along with the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-09-19 Alex Bihlo , Roman O. Popovych

Climate models project an uncertainty range of possible warming scenarios from 1.5 to 5 degree Celsius global temperature increase until 2100, according to the CMIP6 model ensemble. Climate risk management and infrastructure adaptation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-10 Björn Lütjens , Catherine H. Crawford , Mark Veillette , Dava Newman

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Recently, there has been a surge of research on data-driven weather forecasting systems, especially applications based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). These are usually trained on atmospheric data represented on regular…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-18 Sebastian Scher , Gabriele Messori

Tropical forests are a key component of the global carbon cycle. With plans for upcoming space-borne missions like BIOMASS to monitor forestry, several airborne missions, including TropiSAR and AfriSAR campaigns, have been successfully…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Wenyu Yang , Sergio Vitale , Hossein Aghababaei , Giampaolo Ferraioli , Vito Pascazio , Gilda Schirinzi

Physics-based models of dynamical systems are often used to study engineering and environmental systems. Despite their extensive use, these models have several well-known limitations due to simplified representations of the physical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Xiaowei Jia , Jared Willard , Anuj Karpatne , Jordan S Read , Jacob A Zwart , Michael Steinbach , Vipin Kumar

Stochastic generators are useful for estimating climate impacts on various sectors. Projecting climate risk in various sectors, e.g. energy systems, requires generators that are accurate (statistical resemblance to ground-truth), reliable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Emmanuel Balogun , Ram Rajagopal , Arun Majumdar

Recently, surrogate models based on deep learning have attracted much attention for engineering analysis and optimization. As the construction of data pairs in most engineering problems is time-consuming, data acquisition is becoming the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Xiaoyu Zhao , Zhiqiang Gong , Yunyang Zhang , Wen Yao , Xiaoqian Chen
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