Related papers: Generalized Covariance Estimator
This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice,…
We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…
Volatility forecasting plays an important role in the financial econometrics. Previous works in this regime are mainly based on applying various GARCH-type models. However, it is hard for people to choose a specific GARCH model which works…
We study subsampling estimators for the limit variance \[ \sigma^2=Var(X_1)+2 \sum_{k=2}^\infty Cov(X_1,X_k) \] of partial sums of a stationary stochastic process $(X_k)_{k\geq 1}$. We establish $L_2$-consistency of a non-overlapping block…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
In extracting time series data from various sources, it is inevitable to compile variables measured at varying frequencies as this is often dependent on the source. Modeling from these data can be facilitated by aggregating high frequency…
We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…
Autocovariances are a fundamental quantity of interest in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations with autocorrelation function (ACF) plots being an integral visualization tool for performance assessment. Unfortunately, for slow-mixing…
In this paper, we consider an inference problem for the first order autoregressive process with non-zero mean driven by a long memory stationary Gaussian process. Suppose that the covariance function of the noise can be expressed as…
The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution plays a critical role in risk assessment across various domains, such as hydrology, climate science, and finance. In this study, we investigate its application in analyzing intraday trading…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
One essential goal of constructing coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) models is to accurately predict non-equilibrium processes beyond the atomistic scale. While a CG model can be constructed by projecting the full dynamics onto a set…
This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…
We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…
This paper tackles the problem of robust covariance matrix estimation when the data is incomplete. Classical statistical estimation methodologies are usually built upon the Gaussian assumption, whereas existing robust estimation ones assume…