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Related papers: Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and…

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Financial markets are interconnected, with micro-currents propagating across global markets and shaping economic trends. This paper moves beyond traditional stock market indices to examine cross-sectional return distributions-15 in our…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-27 Ping Wu , Dan Zhu

This paper uses new and recently introduced methodologies to study the similarity in the dynamics and behaviours of cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We study two collections; 45 cryptocurrencies and 72…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Nick James

Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-24 Marcin Wątorek , Stanisław Drożdż , Paweł Oświȩcimka , Marek Stanuszek

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-21 Henrik O. Rasmussen , Paul Wilmott

Observations indicate that the distributions of stock returns in financial markets usually do not conform to normal distributions, but rather exhibit characteristics of high peaks, fat tails and biases. In this work, we assume that the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-06 Bo Li

The probability distribution of log-returns for financial time series, sampled at high frequency, is the basis for any further developments in quantitative finance. In this letter, we present experimental results based on a large set of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-11 Laurent Schoeffel

Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-02-23 Gao-Feng Gu , Wei-Xing Zhou

This article presents an empirical study of thirteen derivative markets for commodity and financial assets. It compares the statistical properties of futures contracts's daily returns at different maturities, from 1998 to 2010 and for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-20 Delphine Lautier , Franck Raynaud

The analysis of logarithmic return distributions defined over large time scales is crucial for understanding the long-term dynamics of asset price movements. For large time scales of the order of two trading years, the anticipated Gaussian…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-16 Stijn De Backer , Luis E. C. Rocha , Jan Ryckebusch , Koen Schoors

It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-14 Federica De Domenico , Giacomo Livan , Guido Montagna , Oreste Nicrosini

We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory to financial tick data of the bond futures transacted in Korean Futures Exchange (KOFEX) market. For our case, the tick dynamical behaviors of the returns and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Kyungsik Kim , Seong-Min Yoon , Jum Soo Choi

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-14 Rama Cont , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper analyses the high-frequency intraday Bitcoin dataset from 2019 to 2022. During this time frame, the Bitcoin market index exhibited two distinct periods, 2019-20 and 2021-22, characterized by an abrupt change in volatility. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-24 Yaoyue Tang , Karina Arias-Calluari , M. N. Najafi , Michael S. Harré , Fernando Alonso-Marroquin

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-30 Hernán Larralde , Roberto Mota Navarro

Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in log normalized returns, the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-11-11 Lukas Pichl , Taisei Kaizoji , Takuya Yamano

Several works have observed heavy-tailed behavior in the distributions of returns in different markets, which are observable indicators of underlying complex dynamics. Such prior works study return distributions that are marginalized across…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-11 Hideyuki Miyahara , Hai Qian , Pavan Holur , Vwani Roychowdhury

A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , V. F. Pisarenko , D. Sornette

Financial markets across all asset classes are known to exhibit trends. These trends have been exploited by traders for decades. Here, we empirically measure when trends revert, based on 30 years of daily futures prices for equity indices,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-26 Christof Schmidhuber

This dissertation reports work where physics methods are applied to financial and economical problems. The first part studies stock market data (chapter 1 to 5). The second part is devoted to personal income in the USA (chapter 6). We first…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 A. Christian Silva