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We present two machine learning frameworks for forecasting aggregated curves and optimizing storage in the EPEX SPOT day-ahead market. First, a fast parametric model forecasts hourly demand and supply curves in a low-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Julian Gutierrez , Redouane Silvente

The simulation of stochastic wind loads is necessary for many applications in wind engineering. The proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-based spectral representation method is a popular approach used for this purpose due to its…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Thays Guerra Araujo Duarte , Srinivasan Arunachalam , Arthriya Subgranon , Seymour M J Spence

The co-existence of small cell base stations (SBSs) with conventional macrocell base station is a promising approach to boost the capacity and coverage of cellular networks. However, densifying the network with a viral deployment of SBSs…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-03-14 Gilsoo Lee , Walid Saad , Mehdi Bennis , Abolfazl Mehbodniya , Fumiyuki Adachi

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-14 Benedikt Schulz , Sebastian Lerch

Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Salih Salihoglu , Ibrahim Ahmed , Afshin Asadi

The scheduling and operation of power system becomes prominently complex and uncertain, especially with the penetration of distributed power. Load forecasting matters to the effective operation of power system. This paper proposes a novel…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-05-10 Tinghui Ouyang , Yusen He , Huajin Li , Zhiyu Sun , Stephen Baek

Obtaining accurate probabilistic energy forecasts and making effective decisions amid diverse uncertainties are routine challenges in future energy systems. This paper presents the winning solution of team GEB, which ranked 3rd in trading,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Chuanqing Pu , Feilong Fan , Nengling Tai , Songyuan Liu , Jinming Yu

Recently all major weather prediction centres provide forecast ensembles of different weather quantities which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-20 Sándor Baran , Dóra Nemoda

Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any prediction model and converts point predictions into set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-21 Matteo Gasparin , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper we present a regression based model for day-ahead electricity spot prices. We estimate the considered linear regression model by the lasso estimation method. The lasso approach allows for many possible parameters in the model,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-26 Florian Ziel

In the context of capacity planning, forecasting the evolution of informatics servers usage enables companies to better manage their computational resources. We address this problem by collecting key indicator time series and propose to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Colin Leverger , Vincent Lemaire , Simon Malinowski , Thomas Guyet , Laurence Rozé

We introduce and study spatiotemporal online allocation with deadline constraints ($\mathsf{SOAD}$), a new online problem motivated by emerging challenges in sustainability and energy. In $\mathsf{SOAD}$, an online player completes a…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Adam Lechowicz , Nicolas Christianson , Bo Sun , Noman Bashir , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , Adam Wierman , Prashant Shenoy

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

Accurately predicting short-term traffic demand is critical for intelligent transportation systems. While deep learning models achieve strong performance under stationary conditions, their accuracy often degrades significantly when faced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Xiannan Huang , Quan Yuan , Chao Yang

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

Charging demands of electric vehicles (EVs) are sharply increasing due to the rapid development of EVs. Hence, reliable and convenient quick charge stations are required to respond to the needs of EV drivers. Due to the uncertainty of EV…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-04 Zeyu Liu , Yaxin Xie , Donghan Feng , Yun Zhou , Shanshan Shi , Chen Fang

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Yi-Fan Zhang , Qingsong Wen , Xue Wang , Weiqi Chen , Liang Sun , Zhang Zhang , Liang Wang , Rong Jin , Tieniu Tan

Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Rohit Dube , Natarajan Gautam , Amarnath Banerjee , Harsha Nagarajan

Numerical weather forecasts can exhibit systematic errors due to simplifying model assumptions and computational approximations. Statistical postprocessing is a statistical approach to correcting such biases. A statistical postprocessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-02 Stefan Siegert , Ben Hooper , Joshua Lovegrove , Tyler Thomson , Birgir Hrafnkelsson

We propose a method for post-processing an ensemble of multivariate forecasts in order to obtain a joint predictive distribution of weather. Our method utilizes existing univariate post-processing techniques, in this case ensemble Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-28 Annette Möller , Alex Lenkoski , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir