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This work introduces a method to select linear functional measurements of a vector-valued time series optimized for forecasting distant time-horizons. By formulating and solving the problem of sequential linear measurement design as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Helmuth Naumer , Farzad Kamalabadi

In this paper, we explore the two-point zeroth-order gradient estimator and identify the distribution of random perturbations that minimizes the estimator's asymptotic variance as the perturbation stepsize tends to zero. We formulate it as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Shaocong Ma , Heng Huang

The analysis of observed time series from nonlinear systems is usually done by making a time-delay reconstruction to unfold the dynamics on a multi-dimensional state space. An important aspect of the analysis is the choice of the correct…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-09-05 K. P. Harikrishnan , Rinku Jacob , R. Misra , G. Ambika

Efficient estimation of high-dimensional matrices-including covariance and precision matrices-is a cornerstone of modern multivariate statistics. Most existing studies have focused primarily on the theoretical properties of the estimators…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Wan Tian , Hui Yang , Zhouhui Lian , Lingyue Zhang , Yijie Peng

We develop a computational framework for D-optimal experimental design for PDE-based Bayesian linear inverse problems with infinite-dimensional parameters. We follow a formulation of the experimental design problem that remains valid in the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-17 Alen Alexanderian , Arvind K. Saibaba

This paper presents a new approach, called perturb-max, for high-dimensional statistical inference that is based on applying random perturbations followed by optimization. This framework injects randomness to maximum a-posteriori (MAP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-01 Tamir Hazan , Francesco Orabona , Anand D. Sarwate , Subhransu Maji , Tommi Jaakkola

In this paper we estimate the mean-variance portfolio in the high-dimensional case using the recent results from the theory of random matrices. We construct a linear shrinkage estimator which is distribution-free and is optimal in the sense…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Taras Bodnar , Yarema Okhrin , Nestor Parolya

One way of getting insight into non-Gaussian measures, posed on infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces, is to first obtain best fit Gaussian approximations, which are more amenable to numerical approximation. These Gaussians can then be used…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-23 Gideon Simpson , Daniel Watkins

We consider a generalization of the discrete-time Self Healing Umbrella Sampling method, which is an adaptive importance technique useful to sample multimodal target distributions. The importance function is based on the weights (namely the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-04 Gersende Fort , Benjamin Jourdain , Tony Lelièvre , Gabriel Stoltz

Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

Given a Hilbert space $\mathcal H$ and a finite measure space $\Omega$, the approximation of a vector-valued function $f: \Omega \to \mathcal H$ by a $k$-dimensional subspace $\mathcal U \subset \mathcal H$ plays an important role in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-08-07 Daniel Kressner , Tingting Ni , André Uschmajew

We consider the problem of constructing a least conservative estimator of the expected value $\mu$ of a non-negative heavy-tailed random variable. We require that the probability of overestimating the expected value $\mu$ is kept…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Bart P. G. van Parys , Bert Zwart

We propose a dimension reduction technique for Bayesian inverse problems with nonlinear forward operators, non-Gaussian priors, and non-Gaussian observation noise. The likelihood function is approximated by a ridge function, i.e., a map…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-31 Olivier Zahm , Tiangang Cui , Kody Law , Alessio Spantini , Youssef Marzouk

Linear dimensionality reduction methods are a cornerstone of analyzing high dimensional data, due to their simple geometric interpretations and typically attractive computational properties. These methods capture many data features of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-22 John P. Cunningham , Zoubin Ghahramani

We present a unified theoretical framework for parametric low-rank approximation, a research area devoted to the development of efficient algorithms that act as adaptive alternatives of traditional methods such as Singular Value…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Nicola Rares Franco

Many statistical applications require an estimate of a covariance matrix and/or its inverse. When the matrix dimension is large compared to the sample size, which happens frequently, the sample covariance matrix is known to perform poorly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Olivier Ledoit , Michael Wolf

The real-life data have a complex and non-linear structure due to their nature. These non-linearities and the large number of features can usually cause problems such as the empty-space phenomenon and the well-known curse of dimensionality.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Kadir Özçoban , Murat Manguoğlu , Emrullah Fatih Yetkin

Estimating some mathematical expectations from partially observed data and in particular missing outcomes is a central problem encountered in numerous fields such as transfer learning, counterfactual analysis or causal inference. Matching…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Simon Viel , Lionel Truquet , Ikko Yamane

Domain adaptation is an important problem and often needed for real-world applications. In this problem, instead of i.i.d. training and testing datapoints, we assume that the source (training) data and the target (testing) data have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 A. Tuan Nguyen , Toan Tran , Yarin Gal , Philip H. S. Torr , Atılım Güneş Baydin

Estimating covariance matrices with high-dimensional complex data presents significant challenges, particularly concerning positive definiteness, sparsity, and numerical stability. Existing robust sparse estimators often fail to guarantee…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Shaoxin Wang , Ziyun Ma
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