Related papers: Multiplicative Error Models: 20 years on
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive…
The study of animal behavioural states inferred through hidden Markov models and similar state switching models has seen a significant increase in popularity in recent years. The ability to account for varying levels of behavioural scale…
Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
Ideally, a meta-analysis will summarize data from several unbiased studies. Here we consider the less than ideal situation in which contributing studies may be compromised by measurement error. Measurement error affects every study design,…
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in real-world data, and the assumptions underlying classical linear regression models are often violated in practice. Inspired by the theory of sublinear expectation, we consider a linear regression model where the…
Exponential tilting is a technique commonly used in fields such as statistics, probability, information theory, and optimization to create parametric distribution shifts. Despite its prevalence in related fields, tilting has not seen…
Finite mixture models have been widely used for the modelling and analysis of data from heterogeneous populations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is typically carried out via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The…
This work aims to design a distributed extended object tracking (EOT) system over a realistic network, where both the extent and kinematics are required to retain consensus within the entire network. To this end, we resort to the…
For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and…
The generalized persistence (GP) model, developed in the context of estimating ``value added'' by individual teachers to their students' current and future test scores, is one of the most flexible value-added models in the literature.…
This study evaluates the effectiveness of a Mixture of Experts (MoE) model for stock price prediction by comparing it to a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a linear regression model. The MoE framework combines an RNN for volatile stocks…
In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the…
We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…
We introduce the Multiscale Experience Replay (MER) algorithm for solving a class of stochastic variational inequalities (VIs) in settings where samples are generated from a Markov chain and we have access to a memory buffer to store them.…
Phase-type (PH) distributions are a popular tool for the analysis of univariate risks in numerous actuarial applications. Their multivariate counterparts (MPH$^\ast$), however, have not seen such a proliferation, due to lack of explicit…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…