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Video prediction is a crucial task for intelligent agents such as robots and autonomous vehicles, since it enables them to anticipate and act early on time-critical incidents. State-of-the-art video prediction methods typically model the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Eliyas Suleyman , Paul Henderson , Nicolas Pugeault

Many treatment variables used in empirical applications nest multiple unobserved versions of a treatment. I show that instrumental variable (IV) estimands for the effect of a composite treatment are IV-specific weighted averages of effects…

General Economics · Economics 2022-11-24 Clint Harris

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Nghia D. Nguyen , Pablo Robles-Granda , Lav R. Varshney

We introduce the Multiplicative Quasi-Instrumental Variable (MQIV) model, a framework for causal inference with unmeasured confounding that leverages an instrument that may be imperfectly exogenous. We allow the candidate quasi-instrument…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Jiewen Liu , Chan Park , David Richardson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Recommendation models are typically trained on observational user interaction data, but the interactions between latent factors in users' decision-making processes lead to complex and entangled data. Disentangling these latent factors to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Siyu Wang , Xiaocong Chen , Quan Z. Sheng , Yihong Zhang , Lina Yao

Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…

We address the issue of the testability of instrumental variables derived from observational data. Most existing testable implications are centered on scenarios where the treatment is a discrete variable, e.g., instrumental inequality…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Xichen Guo , Zheng Li , Biwei Huang , Yan Zeng , Zhi Geng , Feng Xie

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Ilya Shpitser , Zach Wood-Doughty , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

In a linear instrumental variables (IV) setting for estimating the causal effects of multiple confounded exposure/treatment variables on an outcome, we investigate the adaptive Lasso method for selecting valid instrumental variables from a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-11 Xiaoran Liang , Eleanor Sanderson , Frank Windmeijer

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

Selecting powerful predictors for an outcome is a cornerstone task for machine learning. However, some types of questions can only be answered by identifying the predictors that causally affect the outcome. A recent approach to this causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Guillaume Martinet , Alexander Strzalkowski , Barbara E. Engelhardt

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to adjust for the bias in estimating treatment effects caused by unmeasured confounders in observational studies. In this manuscript, we provide empirical and theoretical evidence that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-04 Ashkan Ertefaie , Dylan Small , James H. Flory , Sean Hennessy

The continued improvements in the predictive accuracy of machine learning models have allowed for their widespread practical application. Yet, many decisions made with seemingly accurate models still require verification by domain experts.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Oscar Gomez , Steffen Holter , Jun Yuan , Enrico Bertini

It is well-known that, without restricting treatment effect heterogeneity, instrumental variable (IV) methods only identify "local" effects among compliers, i.e., those subjects who take treatment only when encouraged by the IV. Local…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-03 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Max G'Sell

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

Causal representation learning has attracted significant research interest during the past few years, as a means for improving model generalization and robustness. Causal representations of interventional image pairs (also called…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Panagiotis Alimisis , Christos Diou

Instrumental variables have been widely used for estimating the causal effect between exposure and outcome. Conventional estimation methods require complete knowledge about all the instruments' validity; a valid instrument must not have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-23 Hyunseung Kang , Anru Zhang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small