Related papers: Tropical cyclone intensity estimations over the In…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…
Many wind wave spectrum models provide excellent wave height prediction given the input of wind speed and wave age. Their quantification of the surface roughness, on the other hand, varies considerably. The ocean surface roughness is…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
Operational ocean forecasting systems conventionally employ dynamical ocean models driven by atmospheric forcing derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning…
As tropical cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of Al-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages generative…
Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…
We explore hurricane and ocean reanalysis data to understand how rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is impacted by the upper ocean density structure, with an emphasis on barrier layer (BL) thickness and thermocline depth in the…
While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from no effect to a major reduction in storm intensity. To better assess this impact, here we consider the…
Kossin et al. (2020) report a rising ratio of satellite observations of major C3-C5 storms relative to all C1-C5 storms from 1979 to 2017. Decomposing their R = N(C3+)/N(C1+) statistic into per-category shares shows that their trend was…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Floods are one of nature's most catastrophic calamities which cause irreversible and immense damage to human life, agriculture, infrastructure and socio-economic system. Several studies on flood catastrophe management and flood forecasting…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) short-term intensity forecasting with a 24-hour lead time is essential for disaster mitigation in the Atlantic TC basin. Since most TCs evolve far from land-based observing networks, satellite imagery is…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…