Related papers: Tropical cyclone intensity estimations over the In…
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often underperform compared to simpler climatology-based precipitation forecasts in northern tropical Africa, even after statistical postprocessing. AI-based forecasting models show promise but have…
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance.…
We investigate the ocean wave field under Hurricane SAM (2021). Whilst measurements of waves under Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are rare, an unusually large number of quality in situ and remote measurements are available in that case. First, we…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and accurate forecasts of track and intensity are critical for emergency response. Intensity guidance has improved steadily but slowly, as processes…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Building on recent research for prediction of hurricane trajectories using recurrent neural networks (RNNs), we have developed improved methods and generalized the approach to predict Bayesian intervals in addition to simple point…
Cyclone rapid intensification is the rapid increase in cyclone wind intensity, exceeding a threshold of 30 knots, within 24 hours. Rapid intensification is considered an extreme event during a cyclone, and its occurrence is relatively rare,…
To calculate the wind-waves in the Indian Ocean (IO), the wind field for the period from 1998 to 2009 was used, obtained from the NCEP/NOAA archive, and numerical model WAM (Cycle-4) was applied, modified by the new source function proposed…
The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. Despite the small fraction of cyclones, some of the most devastating cyclones have formed in this basin, causing extensive damage to the life and property in…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained…
Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon's rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence…
Climate change affects ocean temperature, salinity and sea level, impacting monsoons and ocean productivity. Future projections by Global Climate Models based on shared socioeconomic pathways from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…
Intensification of tropical storms measured as the central pressure tendency represents a subtle imbalance, of the order of $10^{-3}$, between the inflow and outflow of air in the storm core. Factors driving this imbalance, especially in…
Tropical cyclone (TC) inner-core surface wind vectors underpin intensity forecasting and storm-surge prediction, yet direct observations remain scarce: routine aircraft reconnaissance is confined to the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
The rainfall associated with Topical Cyclone(TC) contributes a major amount to the annual rainfall in India. Due to the limited research on the quantitative precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones (TC), the prediction of the amount…