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In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of suprema of dependent Gaussian processes with trend. For different scales of the time horizon we obtain different normalizing functions for the convergence of the maxima.…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-09 Lanpeng Ji , Xiaofan Peng

Neural Processes (NPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a,b) are a rich class of models for meta-learning that map data sets directly to predictive stochastic processes. We provide a rigorous analysis of the standard maximum-likelihood objective used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Wessel P. Bruinsma , James Requeima , Andrew Y. K. Foong , Jonathan Gordon , Richard E. Turner

In this paper, we consider the distribution of the supremum of non-stationary Gaussian processes, and present a new theoretical result on the asymptotic behaviour of this distribution. Unlike previously known facts in this field, our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Valentin Konakov , Vladimir Panov , Vladimir Piterbarg

The maximum likelihood estimate of the correlation parameter of a Gaussian process with and without of a nugget term is studied in the case of the analysis of deterministic models.

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Andrey Pepelyshev

Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-01 Ziyu Wang , Nando de Freitas

We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-22 Jean-Marc Azaïs , François Bachoc , Agnès Lagnoux , Thi Mong Ngoc Nguyen

In computational physics, machine learning has now emerged as a powerful complementary tool to explore efficiently candidate designs in engineering studies. Outputs in such supervised problems are signals defined on meshes, and a natural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Raphaël Carpintero Perez , Sébastien da Veiga , Josselin Garnier , Brian Staber

Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the $\argmax$ of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-24 Matias D. Cattaneo , Gregory Fletcher Cox , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa

Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Wenjia Wang

This paper focuses on the problem of determining as large a region as possible where a function exceeds a given threshold with high probability. We assume that we only have access to a noise-corrupted version of the function and that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-27 Andrea Zanette , Junzi Zhang , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Higher criticism is a large-scale testing procedure that can attain the optimal detection boundary for sparse and faint signals. However, there has been a lack of knowledge in most existing works about its asymptotic distribution for more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Jingkun Qiu

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

Gaussian Processes face two primary challenges: constructing models for large datasets and selecting the optimal model. This master's thesis tackles these challenges in the low-dimensional case. We examine recent convergence results to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-13 Marcel Neugebauer

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Hildo Bijl , Thomas B. Schön , Jan-Willem van Wingerden , Michel Verhaegen

Gaussian process classification is a popular method with a number of appealing properties. We show how to scale the model within a variational inducing point framework, outperforming the state of the art on benchmark datasets. Importantly,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-10 James Hensman , Alex Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce a novel way to combine boosting with Gaussian process and mixed effects models. This allows for relaxing, first, the zero or linearity assumption for the prior mean function in Gaussian process and grouped random effects models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Fabio Sigrist

In this article we introduce and study oscillating Gaussian processes defined by $X_t = \alpha_+ Y_t {\bf 1}_{Y_t >0} + \alpha_- Y_t{\bf 1}_{Y_t<0}$, where $\alpha_+,\alpha_->0$ are free parameters and $Y$ is either stationary or…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-30 Pauliina Ilmonen , Soledad Torres , Lauri Viitasaari

This article provides an introduction to the asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered. The aim of this introduction is to be accessible to a wide audience and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-16 François Bachoc

We propose stochastic, non-parametric activation functions that are fully learnable and individual to each neuron. Complexity and the risk of overfitting are controlled by placing a Gaussian process prior over these functions. The result is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-01 Sebastian Urban , Marcus Basalla , Patrick van der Smagt

Recently, there has been rising interest in Bayesian optimization -- the optimization of an unknown function with assumptions usually expressed by a Gaussian Process (GP) prior. We study an optimization strategy that directly uses an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-14 Zi Wang , Bolei Zhou , Stefanie Jegelka