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Related papers: Gradient-Based Quantification of Epistemic Uncerta…

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Gradient-based solvers risk convergence to local optima, leading to incorrect researcher inference. Heuristic-based algorithms are able to ``break free" of these local optima to eventually converge to the true global optimum. However, given…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-17 Zachary Porreca

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-26 Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Navid Kardan , Ankit Sharma , Kenneth O. Stanley

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Alan Oursland

In this work, we propose a novel uncertainty-aware object detection framework with a structured-graph, where nodes and edges are denoted by objects and their spatial-semantic similarities, respectively. Specifically, we aim to consider…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-25 Jongha Kim , Jinheon Baek , Sung Ju Hwang

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Yutong Yang , Katarina Popović , Julian Wiederer , Markus Braun , Vasileios Belagiannis , Bin Yang

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely adopted and effective method for compressing models in object detection tasks. Particularly, feature-based distillation methods have shown remarkable performance. Existing approaches often ignore the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Junfei Yi , Jianxu Mao , Tengfei Liu , Mingjie Li , Hanyu Gu , Hui Zhang , Xiaojun Chang , Yaonan Wang

The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Siddhartha Jain , Ge Liu , Jonas Mueller , David Gifford

The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-18 Xuchao Zhang , Fanglan Chen , Chang-Tien Lu , Naren Ramakrishnan

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping the landscape of automatic assessment in education. While these systems demonstrate substantial advantages in adaptability to diverse question types and flexibility in output…

Being uncertain when facing the unknown is key to intelligent decision making. However, machine learning algorithms lack reliable estimates about their predictive uncertainty. This leads to wrong and overly-confident decisions when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Mohamed Ishmael Belghazi , David Lopez-Paz

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Jinxu Lin , Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

In the past decade gradient-based deep learning has revolutionized several applications. However, this rapid advancement has highlighted the need for a deeper theoretical understanding of its limitations. Research has shown that, in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Rustem Takhanov

The Delta method is a classical procedure for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in statistical models, but its direct application to deep neural networks is prevented by the large number of parameters $P$. We propose a low cost variant of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Geir K. Nilsen , Antonella Z. Munthe-Kaas , Hans J. Skaug , Morten Brun

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal