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In this paper we investigate the use of staged tree models for discrete longitudinal data. Staged trees are a type of probabilistic graphical model for finite sample space processes. They are a natural fit for longitudinal data because a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Jack Storror Carter , Manuele Leonelli , Eva Riccomagno , Alessandro Ugolini

Coloured probability tree models are statistical models coding conditional independence between events depicted in a tree graph. They are more general than the very important class of context-specific Bayesian networks. In this paper, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Eliana Duarte , Christiane Görgen

Staged trees are probabilistic graphical models capable of representing any class of non-symmetric independence via a coloring of its vertices. Several structural learning routines have been defined and implemented to learn staged trees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Jack Storror Carter , Manuele Leonelli , Eva Riccomagno , Gherardo Varando

Bayesian networks faithfully represent the symmetric conditional independences existing between the components of a random vector. Staged trees are an extension of Bayesian networks for categorical random vectors whose graph represents…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-10 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Staged tree models are a discrete generalization of Bayesian networks. We show that these form curved exponential families and derive their natural parameters, sufficient statistic, and cumulant-generating function as functions of their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-31 Christiane Görgen , Manuele Leonelli , Orlando Marigliano

Staged trees are a relatively recent class of probabilistic graphical models that extend Bayesian networks to formally and graphically account for non-symmetric patterns of dependence. Machine learning algorithms to learn them from data…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-04 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-05 Raphaël Mourad , Christine Sinoquet , Nevin L. Zhang , Tengfei Liu , Philippe Leray

Bayesian networks are a widely-used class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing symmetric conditional independence between variables of interest using the topology of the underlying graph. For categorical variables, they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Gherardo Varando , Federico Carli , Manuele Leonelli

Generative models for classification use the joint probability distribution of the class variable and the features to construct a decision rule. Among generative models, Bayesian networks and naive Bayes classifiers are the most commonly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Federico Carli , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

In this article we consider the problem of finding generators of the toric ideal associated to a combinatorial object called a staged tree. Our main theorem states that toric ideals of staged trees that are balanced and stratified are…

Commutative Algebra · Mathematics 2021-04-21 Lamprini Ananiadi , Eliana Duarte

Decomposable graphical models, also known as perfect DAG models, play a fundamental role in standard approaches to probabilistic inference via graph representations in modern machine learning and statistics. However, such models are limited…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-14 Eliana Duarte , Liam Solus

We investigate the algebra and geometry of general interventions in discrete DAG models. To this end, we introduce a theory for modeling soft interventions in the more general family of staged tree models and develop the formalism to study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-18 Eliana Duarte , Liam Solus

Staged trees are a recently-developed, powerful family of probabilistic graphical models. An equivalence class of staged trees has now been characterised, and two fundamental statistical operators have been defined to traverse the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Conor Hughes , Peter Strong , Aditi Shenvi

Several structure-learning algorithms for staged trees, asymmetric extensions of Bayesian networks, have been proposed. However, these either do not scale efficiently as the number of variables considered increases, a priori restrict the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-15 Peter Strong , Jim Q. Smith

The varying-coefficient model is a strong tool for the modelling of interactions in generalized regression. It is easy to apply if both the variables that are modified as well as the effect modifiers are known. However, in general one has a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-25 Moritz Berger , Gerhard Tutz , Matthias Schmid

Latent tree analysis seeks to model the correlations among a set of random variables using a tree of latent variables. It was proposed as an improvement to latent class analysis --- a method widely used in social sciences and medicine to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-04 Nevin L. Zhang , Leonard K. M. Poon

We study a parametric family of latent variable models, namely topic models, equipped with a hierarchical structure among the topic variables. Such models may be viewed as a finite mixture of the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) induced…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-27 Sunrit Chakraborty , Rayleigh Lei , XuanLong Nguyen

Dynamic trees are mixtures of tree structured belief networks. They solve some of the problems of fixed tree networks at the cost of making exact inference intractable. For this reason approximate methods such as sampling or mean field…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Amos J. Storkey

In a rooted tree, we call a vertex {\em balanced} if it is at equal distance from all its descendant leaves. We count balanced vertices in three different tree varieties. For decreasing binary trees, we can prove that the probability that a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-09-15 Miklos Bona

Standard methods of using categorical variables as predictors either endow them with an ordinal structure or assume they have no structure at all. However, categorical variables often possess structure that is more complicated than a linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Brian Lucena
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