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Several recent works find empirically that the average test error of deep neural networks can be estimated via the prediction disagreement of models, which does not require labels. In particular, Jiang et al. (2022) show for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Andreas Kirsch , Yarin Gal

When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-06 Miles E. Lopes , Suofei Wu , Thomas C. M. Lee

In most classification tasks there are observations that are ambiguous and therefore difficult to correctly label. Set-valued classifiers output sets of plausible labels rather than a single label, thereby giving a more appropriate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-27 Mauricio Sadinle , Jing Lei , Larry Wasserman

Ensemble models can be used to estimate prediction uncertainties in machine learning models. However, an ensemble of N models is approximately N times more computationally demanding compared to a single model when it is used for inference.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Vidit Agrawal , Shixin Zhang , Lane E. Schultz , Dane Morgan

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

The Ensemble of Classifiers (EoC) has been shown to be effective in improving the performance of single classifiers by combining their outputs, and one of the most important properties involved in the selection of the best EoC from a pool…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-14 Albert H. R. Ko , Robert Sabourin , Alceu S. Britto , Luiz E. S. Oliveira

Ensembling is a simple and popular technique for boosting evaluation performance by training multiple models (e.g., with different initializations) and aggregating their predictions. This approach is commonly reserved for the largest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Dan Kondratyuk , Mingxing Tan , Matthew Brown , Boqing Gong

New bounds on classification error rates for the error-correcting output code (ECOC) approach in machine learning are presented. These bounds have exponential decay complexity with respect to codeword length and theoretically validate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-21 Hieu D. Nguyen , Mohammed Sarosh Khan , Nicholas Kaegi , Shen-Shyang Ho , Jonathan Moore , Logan Borys , Lucas Lavalva

Consider making a prediction over new test data without any opportunity to learn from a training set of labelled data - instead given access to a set of expert models and their predictions alongside some limited information about the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Alex J. Chan , Mihaela van der Schaar

Confidence measures for the generalization error are crucial when small training samples are used to construct classifiers. A common approach is to estimate the generalization error by resampling and then assume the resampled estimator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Eric B. Laber , Susan A. Murphy

In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-20 Dean P. Foster , Sergiu Hart

Ensemble methods are known for enhancing the accuracy and robustness of machine learning models by combining multiple base learners. However, standard approaches like greedy or random ensembling often fall short, as they assume a constant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Sebastian Pineda Arango , Maciej Janowski , Lennart Purucker , Arber Zela , Frank Hutter , Josif Grabocka

This paper considers the problem of choosing a good classifier. For each problem there exist an optimal classifier, but none are optimal, regarding the error rate, in all cases. Because there exists a large number of classifiers, a user…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-08 Gilles R. Ducharme

Recently ensemble selection for consensus clustering has emerged as a research problem in Machine Intelligence. Normally consensus clustering algorithms take into account the entire ensemble of clustering, where there is a tendency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-08-19 Shouvick Mondal , Arko Banerjee

A discriminative ensemble tracker employs multiple classifiers, each of which casts a vote on all of the obtained samples. The votes are then aggregated in an attempt to localize the target object. Such method relies on collective…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Kourosh Meshgi , Maryam Sadat Mirzaei , Shigeyuki Oba , Shin Ishii

The number of component classifiers chosen for an ensemble greatly impacts the prediction ability. In this paper, we use a geometric framework for a priori determining the ensemble size, which is applicable to most of existing batch and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-02 Hamed Bonab , Fazli Can

Many thousands of patent applications arrive at patent offices around the world every day. One important subtask when a patent application is submitted is to assign one or more classification codes from the complex and hierarchical patent…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Eleni Kamateri , Vasileios Stamatis , Konstantinos Diamantaras , Michail Salampasis

An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human or model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-04 Gavin Kerrigan , Padhraic Smyth , Mark Steyvers

Decision support systems based on prediction sets have proven to be effective at helping human experts solve classification tasks. Rather than providing single-label predictions, these systems provide sets of label predictions constructed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Giovanni De Toni , Nastaran Okati , Suhas Thejaswi , Eleni Straitouri , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Ensembles depend on diversity for improved performance. Many ensemble training methods, therefore, attempt to optimize for diversity, which they almost always define in terms of differences in training set predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-10 Andrew Slavin Ross , Weiwei Pan , Leo Anthony Celi , Finale Doshi-Velez