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Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kerri Lu , Dan M. Kluger , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

As machine learning becomes an important part of many real world applications affecting human lives, new requirements, besides high predictive accuracy, become important. One important requirement is transparency, which has been associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-01 Tiago Botari , Rafael Izbicki , Andre C. P. L. F. de Carvalho

Automatic anatomical landmark localization in medical imaging requires not just accurate predictions but reliable uncertainty quantification for effective clinical decision support. Current uncertainty quantification approaches often fall…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jef Jonkers , Frank Coopman , Luc Duchateau , Glenn Van Wallendael , Sofie Van Hoecke

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

Instance segmentation has witnessed promising advancements through deep neural network-based algorithms. However, these models often exhibit incorrect predictions with unwarranted confidence levels. Consequently, evaluating prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Qasim M. K. Siddiqui , Sebastian Starke , Peter Steinbach

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-14 Jean Feng , Arjun Sondhi , Jessica Perry , Noah Simon

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

In this article, we develop and investigate a new classifier based on features extracted using spatial depth. Our construction is based on fitting a generalized additive model to the posterior probabilities of the different competing…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-16 Subhajit Dutta , Anil K. Ghosh

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 Elizabeth Bersson , Peter D. Hoff

Deep learning has the potential to automate many clinically useful tasks in medical imaging. However translation of deep learning into clinical practice has been hindered by issues such as lack of the transparency and interpretability in…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-04 Charles Lu , Andreanne Lemay , Ken Chang , Katharina Hoebel , Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In causal machine learning, the fitting and evaluation of nuisance models are often performed on separate partitions, or folds, of the observed data. This technique, called cross-fitting, eliminates bias introduced by the use of black-box…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Salvador V. Balkus , Hasan Laith , Nima S. Hejazi

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla