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Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Alexander Möllers , Alexander Immer , Elvin Isufi , Vincent Fortuin

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Xingsheng Sun , Burigede Liu

The transductive inference is an effective technique in the few-shot learning task, where query sets update prototypes to improve themselves. However, these methods optimize the model by considering only the classification scores of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Minglei Yuan , Qian Xu , Chunhao Cai , Yin-Dong Zheng , Tao Wang , Tong Lu

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Despite extensive research on adversarial training strategies to improve robustness, the decisions of even the most robust deep learning models can still be quite sensitive to imperceptible perturbations, creating serious risks when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Jonas Ngnawé , Sabyasachi Sahoo , Yann Pequignot , Frédéric Precioso , Christian Gagné

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Leading uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Lukas Aichberger , Kajetan Schweighofer , Sepp Hochreiter

Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-12 Andrea L. Bertozzi , Xiyang Luo , Andrew M. Stuart , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

Uncertainty Sampling is an Active Learning strategy that aims to improve the data efficiency of machine learning models by iteratively acquiring labels of data points with the highest uncertainty. While it has proven effective for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Bertrand Charpentier , Antonio Oroz , Stephan Günnemann

Contrastive approaches to representation learning have recently shown great promise. In contrast to generative approaches, these contrastive models learn a deterministic encoder with no notion of uncertainty or confidence. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman

We present a framework for learning of modeling uncertainties in Linear Time Invariant (LTI) systems. We propose a methodology to extend the dynamics of an LTI (without uncertainty) with an uncertainty model, based on measured data, to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-01 Farhad Ghanipoor , Carlos Murguia , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Nathan van de Wouw

State-of-the-art lidar place recognition models exhibit unreliable performance when tested on environments different from their training dataset, which limits their use in complex and evolving environments. To address this issue, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Keita Mason , Joshua Knights , Milad Ramezani , Peyman Moghadam , Dimity Miller

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Niklas Tötsch , Daniel Hoffmann

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) for recommendation, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit uncertainty in their recommendations. To ensure the trustworthy use of LLMs in generating recommendations, we…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Wonbin Kweon , Sanghwan Jang , SeongKu Kang , Hwanjo Yu

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee