Related papers: A megathrust earthquake genesis process observed b…
Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…
We studied the earthquake detection capacity of DONET (Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) operating in the Nankai Trough, a target region monitored for future megathrust earthquakes. The focus of this paper was to…
Crustal deformation data obtained by geodetic observation networks are foundations in the fields of geodesy and seismology. These data are essential for understanding plate motion and earthquake sources and for simulating earthquake and…
Applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to the geomagnetic data recorded at three measuring stations in Japan, Rong et al. in 2012 reported that anomalous magnetic field variations were identified well before the occurrence of the…
It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…
The disk instability (DI) model for giant planet formation remains an attractive alternative in explaining the formation of giant planets at early times, giant planets at large radial distances, and giant planets orbiting M-stars. In this…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A…
The conditional intensity function of a point process is a useful tool for generating probability forecasts of earthquakes. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is defined by a conditional intensity function, and the…
Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use…
Many catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, are preceded by an observable acceleration phase that offers a critical window for early warning and hazard mitigation; however, the…
The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago south of Japan's main islands, has experienced ongoing earthquake swarm activity in 2025, raising concerns about triggering the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. The Japan Meteorological Agency…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
The M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake on July 29, 2025 was one of the largest in the first quarter of the 21st century. It deserves a thorough analysis including the preparation process. A smaller M7.4 earthquake occurred on July 20 with its…
Event counts are a powerful diagnostic for earthquake analysis. We report on a bimodal distribution of earthquake event counts in the U.S. since 2013. The new peak is about a magnitude M1 with a distribution very similar to that of induced…
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…
Significant advances, both in the theoretical understanding of rupture processes in heterogeneous media and in the methodology for characterizing critical behavior, allows us to reanalyze the evidence for criticality and especially…
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
Earthquake prediction is one of the most pursued problems in geoscience. Different geological and seismological approaches exist for the prediction of the earthquake and its subsequent land change. However, in many cases, they fail in their…