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As increasingly popular metrics of worker and institutional quality, estimated value-added (VA) measures are now widely used as dependent or explanatory variables in regressions. For example, VA is used as an explanatory variable when…
A statistical method for the elicitation of priors in Bayesian generalised linear models (GLMs) and extensions is proposed. Probabilistic predictions are elicited from the expert to parametrise a multivariate t prior distribution for the…
Variational inference (VI) is a popular method for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian inference and probabilistic machine learning. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the statistical…
Popular (ensemble) Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) approaches assume that the errors in both the a priori estimate of the state and those in the observations are Gaussian. For constrained variables, e.g. sea ice concentration or…
Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) typically rely on a probabilistic decoder with a predefined likelihood, most commonly an isotropic Gaussian, to model the data conditional on latent variables. While convenient for optimization, this choice…
From large language models to multi-modal agents, Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) now underpins state-of-the-art systems. Despite their varied architectures, many share a common foundation in probabilistic latent variable models…
Transformation-based methods have been an attractive approach in non-parametric inference for problems such as unconditional and conditional density estimation due to their unique hierarchical structure that models the data as flexible…
Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model…
The vanilla method in univariate extreme-value theory consists of fitting the three-parameter Generalized Extreme-Value (GEV) distribution to a sample of block maxima. Despite claims to the contrary, the asymptotic normality of the maximum…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…
Laplace approximation (LA) and its linearized variant (LLA) enable effortless adaptation of pretrained deep neural networks to Bayesian neural networks. The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is typically introduced to improve…
Logistic regression model is widely used in many studies to investigate the relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ and a set of potential predictors $\mathbf X$. The binary response may represent, for example, the occurrence of…
Auto-encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) is a powerful and general algorithm for fitting latent variable models (a promising direction for unsupervised learning), and is well-known for training the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE). In this…
Multimodal generative models require a unified approach to handle both discrete data (e.g., text and code) and continuous data (e.g., image, audio, video). In this work, we propose Latent Language Modeling (LatentLM), which seamlessly…
We would like to learn latent representations that are low-dimensional and highly interpretable. A model that has these characteristics is the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model. The benefits and negative of the GP-LVM are complementary…
Dimensionality reduction is crucial for analyzing large-scale single-cell RNA-seq data. Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) offer an interpretable dimensionality reduction method, but current scalable models lack effectiveness…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior…
The Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GP-LVM) is a non-linear probabilistic method of embedding a high dimensional dataset in terms low dimensional `latent' variables. In this paper we illustrate that maximum a posteriori (MAP)…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a standard framework for inducing latent variable models that have been shown effective in learning text representations as well as in text generation. The key challenge with using VAEs is the {\it…
Revealing the underlying causal mechanisms in the real world is crucial for scientific and technological progress. Despite notable advances in recent decades, the lack of high-quality data and the reliance of traditional causal discovery…