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Bayesian model reduction provides an efficient approach for comparing the performance of all nested sub-models of a model, without re-evaluating any of these sub-models. Until now, Bayesian model reduction has been applied mainly in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jim Beckers , Bart van Erp , Ziyue Zhao , Kirill Kondrashov , Bert de Vries

In particle physics, as in many areas of science, parameter inference relies on simulations to bridge the gap between theory and experiment. Recent developments in simulation-based inference have boosted the sensitivity of analyses;…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-04-23 Ezequiel Alvarez , Sean Benevedes , Manuel Szewc , Jesse Thaler

Laplace approximation is a very useful tool in Bayesian inference and it claims a nearly Gaussian behavior of the posterior. \cite{SpLaplace2022} established some rather accurate finite sample results about the quality of Laplace…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Vladimir Spokoiny

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Jon Wilkening , Alexandre J. Chorin

Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-28 Sean Yiu , Brian Tom

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

In this paper, we study the low-rank matrix completion problem, a class of machine learning problems, that aims at the prediction of missing entries in a partially observed matrix. Such problems appear in several challenging applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-04 The Tien Mai

We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-26 San Gultekin , Aonan Zhang , John Paisley

Scientific knowledge expands by observing the world, hypothesizing some theories about it, and testing them against collected data. When those theories take the form of statistical models, statistical analyses are involved in the process of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-11 Arnaud Delaunoy

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and…

Inference is a versatile tool that underlies scientific discovery, machine learning, and everyday decision-making: it describes how an agent updates a probability distribution as partial information is acquired from multiple measurements,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-27 Nathan Shettell , Alexia Auffèves

Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Tengyuan Liang , Weijie Su

We study the foundations of variational inference, which frames posterior inference as an optimisation problem, for probabilistic programming. The dominant approach for optimisation in practice is stochastic gradient descent. In particular,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Basim Khajwal , C. -H. Luke Ong , Dominik Wagner

Nowadays, algorithms with fast convergence, small memory footprints, and low per-iteration complexity are particularly favorable for artificial intelligence applications. In this paper, we propose a doubly stochastic algorithm with a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Zebang Shen , Hui Qian , Tongzhou Mu , Chao Zhang

We present randomized algorithms for estimating the trace and deter- minant of Hermitian positive semi-definite matrices. The algorithms are based on subspace iteration, and access the matrix only through matrix vector products. We analyse…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-02-17 Arvind K. Saibaba , Alen Alexanderian , Ilse C. F. Ipsen

We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, is consistent,…

Randomized experiments are the preferred approach for evaluating the effects of interventions, but they are costly and often yield estimates with substantial uncertainty. On the other hand, in silico experiments leveraging foundation models…

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Hippolyte Verdier , François Laurent , Alhassan Cassé , Christian Vestergaard , Jean-Baptiste Masson
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