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This paper introduces a novel goodness-of-fit test technique for parametric conditional distributions. The proposed tests are based on a residual marked empirical process, for which we develop a conditional Principal Component Analysis. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Cui Rui , Li Yuhao

This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

The model-X conditional randomization test is a generic framework for conditional independence testing, unlocking new possibilities to discover features that are conditionally associated with a response of interest while controlling type-I…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Shalev Shaer , Yaniv Romano

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-02 Igor L. Kheifets

In this paper, we propose an easy-to-implement residual-based specification testing procedure for detecting structural changes in factor models, which is powerful against both smooth and abrupt structural changes with unknown break dates.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Bin Peng , Liangjun Su , Yayi Yan

This paper proposes a new class of nonparametric tests for the correct specification of models based on conditional moment restrictions, paying particular attention to generalized propensity score models. The test procedure is based on two…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Xiaojun Song

We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Marie Hušková , Natalie Neumeyer , Tobias Niebuhr , Leonie Selk

In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-15 Jinyuan Chang , Qing Jiang , Xiaofeng Shao

Consider an observation of a multivariate temporal point process $N$ with law $\mathcal P$ on the time interval $[0,T]$. To test the null hypothesis that $\mathcal P$ belongs to a given parametric family, we construct a convergent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-26 Justin Baars , Sami Umut Can , Roger J. A. Laeven

Identifying relationships among stochastic processes is a core objective in many fields, such as economics. While the standard toolkit for multivariate time series analysis has many advantages, it can be difficult to capture nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Michael Wieck-Sosa , Michel F. C. Haddad , Aaditya Ramdas

We present a general nonparametric approach for testing whether a statistical parameter defined through conditional distributions is constant across the conditioning variables. Such hypotheses arise naturally in problems such as assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Albert Osom , Ali Shojaie , Aaron Hudson

We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Shalev Shaer , Yarin Bar , Drew Prinster , Yaniv Romano

This paper considers a class of nonparametric autoregressive models with nonstationarity. We propose a nonparametric kernel test for the conditional mean and then establish an asymptotic distribution of the proposed test. Both the setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Jiti Gao , Maxwell King , Zudi Lu , Dag Tjøstheim

In spatio-temporal analysis, we often record data at specific time intervals but with varying spatial locations between these timepoints. We propose a conditional model to analyze such spatio-temporal data that accommodates the dependencies…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Subhrajyoty Roy , Soudeep Deb , Sayar Karmakar , Rishideep Roy

Motivated by applications in biological science, we propose a novel test to assess the conditional mean dependence of a response variable on a large number of covariates. Our procedure is built on the martingale difference divergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Xianyang Zhang , Shun Yao , Xiaofeng Shao

The inspection of residuals is a fundamental step to investigate the quality of adjustment of a parametric model to data. For spatial point processes, the concept of residuals has been recently proposed by Baddeley et al. (2005) as an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-07 Jean-François Coeurjolly , Frédéric Lavancier

A consistent goodness-of-fit test for distributional regression is introduced. The test statistic is based on a process that traces the difference between a nonparametric and a semi-parametric estimate of the marginal distribution function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Gitte Kremling , Gerhard Dikta

This paper shows that the problem of testing hypotheses in moment condition models without any assumptions about identification may be considered as a problem of testing with an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-24 Isaiah Andrews , Anna Mikusheva

We propose a family of tests to assess the goodness-of-fit of a high-dimensional generalized linear model. Our framework is flexible and may be used to construct an omnibus test or directed against testing specific non-linearities and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Jana Janková , Rajen D. Shah , Peter Bühlmann , Richard J. Samworth