Related papers: About evaluation metrics for contextual uplift mod…

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the…

Quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity is a crucial task in many areas of causal inference, e.g. optimal treatment allocation and estimation of subgroup effects. We study the problem of estimating the level sets of the conditional…

Current frontier AI safety evaluations emphasize static benchmarks, third-party annotations, and red-teaming. In this position paper, we argue that AI safety research should focus on human-centered evaluations that measure harmful…

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

While randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects, their limited sample sizes and restrictive criteria make it difficult to extrapolate to a broader population. Observational data, while…

Estimating causal effects is particularly challenging when outcomes arise in complex, non-Euclidean spaces, where conventional methods often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We develop a framework for topological causal…

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) are foundational causal estimands, but they target changes in expected outcomes and can miss treatment-induced changes in the shape of outcome distributions. A…

Externally controlled single-arm trials are critical to assess treatment efficacy across therapeutic indications for which randomized controlled trials are not feasible. A closely-related research design, the unanchored indirect treatment…

Uplift models play a critical role in modern marketing applications to help understand the incremental benefits of interventions and identify optimal targeting strategies. A variety of techniques exist for building uplift models, and it is…

Real world observational data, together with causal inference, allow the estimation of causal effects when randomized controlled trials are not available. To be accepted into practice, such predictive models must be validated for the…

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there…

Generating probabilistic forecasts of potential outcomes and individual treatment effects (ITE) is essential for risk-aware decision-making in domains such as healthcare, policy, marketing, and finance. We propose two novel methods: the…

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

Uplift modeling has been used effectively in fields such as marketing and customer retention, to target those customers who are more likely to respond due to the campaign or treatment. Essentially, it is a machine learning technique that…

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…