Related papers: About evaluation metrics for contextual uplift mod…

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) prediction is an important area of research in machine learning which aims at explaining and estimating the causal impact of an action at the granular level. It represents a problem of growing interest in…

Applying causal inference models in areas such as economics, healthcare and marketing receives great interest from the machine learning community. In particular, estimating the individual-treatment-effect (ITE) in settings such as precision…

Uplift modeling is widely used in performance marketing to estimate effects of promotion campaigns (e.g., increase of customer retention rate). Since it is impossible to observe outcomes of a recipient in treatment (e.g., receiving a…

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and…

Estimating treatment effects is one of the most challenging and important tasks of data analysts. In many applications, like online marketing and personalized medicine, treatment needs to be allocated to the individuals where it yields a…

Uplift modeling and Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) estimation aim at predicting the causal effect of an action, such as a medical treatment or a marketing campaign on a specific individual. In this paper, we focus on data from…

Uplift modeling, vital in online marketing, seeks to accurately measure the impact of various strategies, such as coupons or discounts, on different users by predicting the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). In an e-commerce setting, user…

Uplift is a particular case of individual treatment effect modeling. Such models deal with cause-and-effect inference for a specific factor, such as a marketing intervention. In practice, these models are built on customer data who…

Uplift modeling is a collection of machine learning techniques for estimating causal effects of a treatment at the individual or subgroup levels. Over the last years, causality and uplift modeling have become key trends in personalization…

Uplift modeling is a fundamental component of marketing effect modeling, which is commonly employed to evaluate the effects of treatments on outcomes. Through uplift modeling, we can identify the treatment with the greatest benefit. On the…

Selecting causal inference models for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational data presents a unique challenge since the counterfactual outcomes are never observed. The problem is challenged further in the…

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

We consider the task of optimizing treatment assignment based on individual treatment effect prediction. This task is found in many applications such as personalized medicine or targeted advertising and has gained a surge of interest in…

Human uplift studies, or studies that measure the effects of AI access on human performance via randomized controlled trials (RCT) or similar methodologies, increasingly inform frontier AI governance and deployment decisions. While RCT…

A primary challenge in ITE estimation is sample selection bias. Traditional approaches utilize treatment regularization techniques such as the Integral Probability Metrics (IPM), re-weighting, and propensity score modeling to mitigate this…

Uplift modeling, also known as individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation, is an important approach for data-driven decision making that aims to identify the causal impact of an intervention on individuals. This paper introduces a new…

In this manuscript (ms), we propose causal inference based single-branch ensemble trees for uplift modeling, namely CIET. Different from standard classification methods for predictive probability modeling, CIET aims to achieve the change in…

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

We study uplift estimation for combinatorial treatments. Uplift measures the pure incremental causal effect of an intervention (e.g., sending a coupon or a marketing message) on user behavior, modeled as a conditional individual treatment…