Related papers: Epidemic processes with vaccination and immunity l…
Epidemics of infectious diseases are an important threat to public health and global economies. Yet, the development of prevention strategies remains a challenging process, as epidemics are non-linear and complex processes. For this reason,…
We study epidemic processes with immunization on very large 1-dimensional lattices, where at least some of the infections are non-local, with rates decaying as power laws p(x) ~ x^{-sigma-1} for large distances x. When starting with a…
Efficient testing and vaccination protocols are critical aspects of epidemic management. To study the optimal allocation of limited testing and vaccination resources in a heterogeneous contact network of interacting susceptible, recovered,…
Recent Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need of efficient epidemic outbreak management. We study the optimal control problem of minimizing the fraction of infected population by applying vaccination and treatment control strategies,…
Inferring the timing and amplitude of perturbations in epidemiological systems from their stochastically spread low-resolution outcomes is as relevant as challenging. It is a requirement for current approaches to overcome the need to know…
We develop a theory of first passage processes in stochastic non-equilibrium systems of birth-death type using two closely related epidemiological models as examples. Our method employs the probability generating function technique in…
Network-based epidemic models have been extensively employed to understand the spread of infectious diseases, but have generally overlooked the fact that most realistic networks are dynamical rather than static. In this paper, we study a…
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast amount of growth for statistical models and methods which characterize features of disease outbreaks. One class of models that came to light in this regard has been the use of self-exciting point…
In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods…
We study the epidemic source detection problem in contact tracing networks modeled as a graph-constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem using the susceptible-infected model in epidemiology. Based on a snapshot observation of the…
The association between multidimensional exposure patterns and outcomes is commonly investigated by first applying cluster analysis algorithms to derive patterns and then estimating the associations. However, errors in the underlying…
The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary) expected…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
In this paper, we address a social planner's optimal control problem for a partially observable stochastic epidemic model. The control measures include social distancing, testing, and vaccination. Using a diffusion approximation for the…
Vaccination games in higher-order settings remain underexplored, despite their importance in shaping opinions and collective decisions. Here, we introduce a parsimonious behavioral-epidemiological model to evaluate how peer reinforcement…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…