Related papers: De Finetti for mathematics undergraduates
Exchangeability is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics. It allows to model situations where the order of observations does not matter. The classical de Finetti's theorem provides a representation of infinitely…
De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…
A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of the indices. De Finetti's theorem characterizes all $\{0,1\}$-valued exchangeable sequences as a "mixture" of…
A classic and fundamental result about the decomposition of random sequences into a mixture of simpler ones is de Finetti's Theorem. In its original form it applies to infinite 0-1 valued exchangeable sequences. Later it was extended and…
The aim of this paper is to show that partial probability can be justified from the standpoint of subjective probability in much the same way as classical probability does. The seminal works of Ramsey and De Finetti have furnished a method…
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting…
A finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools: The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable binary vector of length $n\geq k$ is close to a mixture…
The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…
We give a nonstandard analytic proof of de Finetti's theorem for an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli random variables. The theorem postulates that such a sequence is uniquely representable as a mixture of iid sequences of Bernoulli random…
We extend de Finetti's (1937) notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than (linear) previsions. We prove…
We introduce a framework uniting algorithmic randomness with exchangeable credences to address foundational questions in philosophy of probability and philosophy of science. To demonstrate its power, we show how one might use the framework…
We prove a de Finetti theorem for exchangeable sequences of states on test spaces, where a test space is a generalization of the sample space of classical probability theory and the Hilbert space of quantum theory. The standard classical…
We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…
We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…
The theory of combinatorial game (like board games) and the theory of social games (where one looks for Nash equilibria) are normally considered as two separate theories. Here we shall see what comes out of combining the ideas. The central…
This work has been prompted by the surprising lack of mathematical coherence in the common usage of some of the fundamental entities in the theory of probability, with an inherent risk of contradiction. While disentangling the intricacies,…
Multi-class systems having possibly both finite and infinite classes are investigated under a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of such a system, given the vector of the empirical measures of…
We use a logical device called the Dutch Book to establish epistemic confidence, defined as the sense of confidence \emph{in an observed} confidence interval. This epistemic property is unavailable -- or even denied -- in orthodox…
De Finetti's betting argument is used to justify finitely additive probabilities when only finitely many bets are considered. Under what circumstances can countably many bets be used to justify countable additivity? In this framework, one…
We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…