Related papers: Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spread through the world. The model combines the SEIR-based model for…
In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the…
The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs…
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have emerged as crucial interventions for mitigating the spread of the virus. In this study, we enhance the predictive capabilities of our model, Sequence-to-Sequence Epidemic Attention…
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…
In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area…