Related papers: Decision making with dynamic probabilistic forecas…
We offer a parsimonious model to investigate how strategic wind producers sell energy under stochastic production constraints, where the extent of heterogeneity of wind energy availability varies according to wind farm locations. The main…
With the rapid growth in renewable energy and battery storage technologies, there exists significant opportunity to improve energy efficiency and reduce costs through optimization. However, optimization algorithms must take into account the…
Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…
To make decisions organisms often accumulate information across multiple timescales. However, most experimental and modeling studies of decision-making focus on sequences of independent trials. On the other hand, natural environments are…
The operation of power systems is affected by diverse technical, economic and social factors. Social behaviour determines load patterns, electricity markets regulate the generation and weather-dependent renewables introduce power…
We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared…
This paper introduces a new stochastic diffusion process to model the electricity production from natural gas sources (as a percentage of total electricity production) in the United States. The method employs trend function analysis to…
The increasing share of renewables in the electricity generation mix comes along with an increasing uncertainty in power supply. In the recent years, distributionally robust optimization has gained significant interest due to its ability to…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…
We investigate a social system of agents faced with a binary choice. We assume there is a correct, or beneficial, outcome of this choice. Furthermore, we assume agents are influenced by others in making their decision, and that the agents…
In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…
Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…
The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc., they normally make decisions based on…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…
Wind power producers can benefit from forming coalitions to participate cooperatively in electricity markets. To support such collaboration, various profit allocation rules rooted in cooperative game theory have been proposed. However,…
Reliable demand forecasts are critical for the effective supply chain management. Several endogenous and exogenous variables can influence the dynamics of demand, and hence a single statistical model that only consists of historical sales…
There are numerous industrial settings in which a decision maker must decide whether to enter into long-term contracts to guarantee price (and hence cash flow) stability or to participate in more volatile spot markets. In this paper, we…
Greater direct electrification of end-use sectors with a higher share of renewables is one of the pillars to power a carbon-neutral society by 2050. However, in contrast to conventional power plants, renewable energy is subject to…
Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…