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The problems of causality, modeling, and control for chaotic, high-dimensional dynamical systems are formulated in the language of information theory. The central quantity of interest is the Shannon entropy, which measures the amount of…
Kyle model in continuous time where the insider may be subject to legal penalties is considered. In equilibrium the insider internalises this legal risk by trading less aggressively. The equilibrium is characterised via the solution of a…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
The Black-Litterman model is a framework for incorporating forward-looking expert views in a portfolio optimization problem. Existing work focuses almost exclusively on single-period problems with the forecast horizon matching that of the…
In an equity market model with "Knightian" uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, we characterize in several ways the highest return relative to the market that can be achieved using nonanticipative…
We investigate joint optimization on information acquisition and portfolio selection within a Bayesian adaptive framework. The investor dynamically controls the precision of a private signal and incurs costs while updating her belief about…
In frictionless markets, utility maximization problems are typically solved either by stochastic control or by martingale methods. Beginning with the seminal paper of Davis and Norman [Math. Oper. Res. 15 (1990) 676--713], stochastic…
We develop a dynamic multi-agent model of an interbank payment system where banks choose their level of available funds on the basis of private payoff maximisation. The model consists of the repetition of a simultaneous move stage game with…
In this paper, we consider a risk-based optimal investment problem of an insurer in a regime-switching jump diffusion model with noisy memory. Using the model uncertainty modeling, we formulate the investment problem as a zero-sum,…
We investigate a continuous-time investment-consumption problem with model uncertainty in a general diffusion-based market with random model coefficients. We assume that a power utility investor is ambiguity-averse, with the preference to…
Analysis of a probabilistic system often requires to learn the joint probability distribution of its random variables. The computation of the exact distribution is usually an exhaustive precise analysis on all executions of the system. To…
We study the utility maximization problem for power utility random fields in a semimartingale financial market, with and without intermediate consumption. The notion of an opportunity process is introduced as a reduced form of the value…
In financial markets, the information that traders have about an asset is reflected in its price. The arrival of new information then leads to price changes. The `information-based framework' of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) isolates…
We provide an axiomatic foundation for the representation of num\'{e}raire-invariant preferences of economic agents acting in a financial market. In a static environment, the simple axioms turn out to be equivalent to the following choice…
We provide an extension of the explicit solution of a mixed optimal stopping-optimal stochastic control problem introduced by Henderson and Hobson. The problem examines wether the optimal investment problem on a local martingale financial…
We consider an agent who has access to a financial market, including derivative contracts, who looks to maximise her utility. Whilst the agent looks to maximise utility over one probability measure, or class of probability measures, she…
We consider the problem of maximising expected utility from terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written as a sum of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem,…
We explore the effects of social influence in a simple market model in which a large number of agents face a binary choice: 'to buy/not to buy' a single unit of a product at a price posted by a single seller (the monopoly case). We consider…
In this paper we extend the series of our studies on the properties of an interacting particle model for market microstructure. In our earlier work we defined a Markov process on the majority opinion of the agents, obtained the transition…
The Merton investment-consumption problem is fundamental, both in the field of finance, and in stochastic control. An important extension of the problem adds transaction costs, which is highly relevant from a financial perspective but also…