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Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-26 Imke Mayer , Julie Josse , Félix Raimundo , Jean-Philippe Vert

We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a $2\times 2$ factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted $A$ and $B$, and units are randomly assigned to one of four categories: treatment $A$…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Mate Kormos , Robert P. Lieli , Martin Huber

We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Many interventions are both beneficial to initiate and harmful to stop. Traditionally, to determine whether to deploy that intervention in a time-limited way depends on if, on average, the increase in the benefits of starting it outweigh…

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

Many public health interventions are conducted in settings where individuals are connected to one another and the intervention assigned to randomly selected individuals may spill over to other individuals they are connected to. In these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Junhan Fang , Donna Spiegelman , Ashley Buchanan , Laura Forastiere

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

We consider design-based causal inference for spatial experiments in which treatments may have effects that bleed out and feed back in complex ways. Such spatial spillover effects violate the standard ``no interference'' assumption for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-06 Ye Wang , Cyrus Samii , Haoge Chang , P. M. Aronow

This paper develops methods for uncertainty quantification in causal inference settings with random network interference. We study the large-sample distributional properties of the classical difference-in-means Hajek treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yihan He , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Researchers are often challenged with assessing the impact of an intervention on an outcome of interest in situations where the intervention is non-randomised, the intervention is only applied to one or few units, the intervention is…

The network interference model for causal inference places all experimental units at the vertices of an undirected exposure graph, such that treatment assigned to one unit may affect the outcome of another unit if and only if these two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Tianchen Qian

We develop a framework for causal inference with continuous spatiotemporal point-process outcomes under cell-level interventions and outcome spillover. Potential outcomes are indexed by full treatment allocations, and the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Conor Kresin , Duncan A. Clark , Louis Davis , Martin Hazelton

Many methods have been proposed to estimate treatment effects with observational data. Often, the choice of the method considers the application's characteristics, such as type of treatment and outcome, confounding effect, and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-20 Raquel Aoki , Martin Ester

We probe the foundations of causal structure inference experimentally. The causal structure concerns which events influence other events. We probe whether causal structure can be determined without intervention in quantum systems.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-12 Hongfeng Liu , Xiangjing Liu , Qian Chen , Yixian Qiu , Vlatko Vedral , Xinfang Nie , Oscar Dahlsten , Dawei Lu